Top 3
Beat the estimateNo comparable estimates available for this race yet.
Kings of this circuit
The race, in perspective
R042021
Race debrief
What did we expect after qualifying—and who beat it?
Share this debrief
20 stored results
20/20 Elo snapshots
20/20 numbered grid slots
0/20 qualifying results
Elo × qualifying → race result
Experimental · v1
Did they beat the expectation?
A strong driver recovering from a poor qualifying position isn't automatically a surprise. This model estimates a finish from both inputs, then compares it with what happened.
Expected finish assumes a classified finish. DNFs stay in the full grid but receive no performance verdict. Qualifying is not the starting grid; grid differences are flagged, not silently substituted.
Fit on 624 earlier finishes across 36 races, 2011–2020. No results from this race enter its expectation.
0/20 entrants have an estimate. Missing Elo or qualifying stays visible below; a grid position is not used as a qualifying result.
Flop 3
Below the estimateNo comparable estimates available for this race yet.
0/20 entrants assessed. Up to three per side, ranked by expected minus actual finish. DNFs, missing estimates and gaps rounding to 0.0 are excluded. “Flop” means below the model's estimate—not poor driving. A ranked gap can still be inside the usual error range.
| Driver | Pre-race Elo | Qualifying | Expected | Result | P1 ← position → P20 | vs expected | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. HamiltonMercedes | #12708 | — | —No error range | P1 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| M. VerstappenRed Bull | #22400 | — | —No error range | P2 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| V. BottasMercedes | #32350 | — | —No error range | P3 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| C. LeclercFerrari | #82248 | — | —No error range | P4 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| S. PérezRed Bull | #72268 | — | —No error range | P5 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| D. RicciardoMcLaren | #52323 | — | —No error range | P6 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| C. SainzFerrari | #62296 | — | —No error range | P7 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| L. NorrisMcLaren | #42330 | — | —No error range | P8 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| E. OconAlpine F1 Team | #92206 | — | —No error range | P9 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| P. GaslyAlphaTauri | #102172 | — | —No error range | P10 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| L. StrollAston Martin | #112143 | — | —No error range | P11 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| K. RäikkönenAlfa Romeo | #132029 | — | —No error range | P12 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| S. VettelAston Martin | #122084 | — | —No error range | P13 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| G. RussellWilliams | #181958 | — | —No error range | P14 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| A. GiovinazziAlfa Romeo | #162011 | — | —No error range | P15 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| N. LatifiWilliams | #201875 | — | —No error range | P16 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| F. AlonsoAlpine F1 Team | #152027 | — | —No error range | P17 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| M. SchumacherHaas F1 Team | #171964 | — | —No error range | P18 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| N. MazepinHaas F1 Team | #191928 | — | —No error range | P19 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| Y. TsunodaAlphaTauri | #142029 | — | —No error range | DNFElectrical | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable |
How useful is the model? See the historical check
Average absolute error on 624 classified finishes in 36 earlier races within the last ten years. Each race was held out and predicted using only older races; all three models use the same samples.
- Elo + qualifying
- 2.16places
- Qualifying only
- 2.41places
- Elo only
- 2.62places
The range scales the 80th percentile of earlier held-out absolute errors to this field size, rounding outward. It is an empirical error guide, not a guaranteed 80% chance for a particular driver. We require at least five checked races and 100 checked finishes before showing it.
Inputs are field-normalised Elo rank and qualifying position. The target is position among all race entries, trained only on classified finishers. Estimates are averages, not a unique predicted finishing order. Penalties, the circuit, weather, incidents and strategy aren't model inputs. Historical qualifying coverage is patchy; this is an exploratory backtest on corrected records, not proof of live forecasting accuracy.
The rating ledger
What changed in Elo?
These are actual rating changes. The expectation model above does not change Elo or fantasy scoring.
The bigger picture
Championship after this round
Top five in the stored standings. Points include sprint results where applicable.
- 1 Hamilton 94pts 0
- 2 Verstappen 80pts 0
- 3 Bottas 47pts +1
- 4 Norris 41pts −1
- 5 Leclerc 40pts 0
Movement since round 3. A dash means the earlier standing is unavailable.
Explore the season →
Across the garage
Teammate results
Two-driver constructor entries from this race. A result comparison, not an adjustment for strategy or reliability.
Mercedes
HamiltonP1+5.8 Elo
BottasP3+20.4 Elo
2 places apart at the finish.
Red Bull
VerstappenP2+21.0 Elo
PérezP5+18.4 Elo
3 places apart at the finish.
Ferrari
LeclercP4+27.0 Elo
SainzP7+2.8 Elo
3 places apart at the finish.
McLaren
RicciardoP6+5.6 Elo
NorrisP8−7.2 Elo
2 places apart at the finish.
Alpine F1 Team
OconP9+2.5 Elo
AlonsoP17−21.2 Elo
8 places apart at the finish.
AlphaTauri
GaslyP10+1.2 Elo
TsunodaDNF−39.5 Elo
Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.
Aston Martin
StrollP11−0.8 Elo
VettelP13−4.7 Elo
2 places apart at the finish.
Alfa Romeo
RäikkönenP12+8.5 Elo
GiovinazziP15−7.1 Elo
3 places apart at the finish.
Williams
RussellP14+5.4 Elo
LatifiP16+2.5 Elo
2 places apart at the finish.
Haas F1 Team
SchumacherP18−19.3 Elo
MazepinP19−21.2 Elo
1 place apart at the finish.
What this analysis can—and cannot—tell you
This debrief is calculated from stored results and rating snapshots. The experimental expectation model learns from earlier races only, using Elo rank and qualifying together; it never feeds back into Elo. It is not a separately reviewed race report.
Elo uses the result order, including retirements. It does not isolate driver skill from the car, reliability, penalties or strategy. Elo seed comparisons use pre-race ratings, never today's ratings. Equal ratings share the midpoint of their rank range (for example, tied first and second become seed 1.5).
Grid gains use numbered starting slots and classified finishes only. Zero or missing grid values are excluded; a position gained is not necessarily an overtake. Qualifying gaps use the latest segment both teammates have a valid time for, never Q1 against Q3.
Lap-by-lap pace, tyre stints, pit-stop execution and safety-car effects are not available in this report. Missing data is omitted, not inferred.
Read the Elo methodology →Race
Qualifying
| # | Driver | Grid | +/- | Points | Season Pts | Season # | Elo Change | Elo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | 🇬🇧 |
|
L.Hamilton | 1 | — | +25 | 94 | P1 | +5.8 | 2,714 |
| P2 | 🇳🇱 |
|
M.Verstappen | 2 | — | +19 | 80 | P2 | +21.0 | 2,421 |
| P3 | 🇫🇮 |
|
V.Bottas | 3 | — | +15 | 47 | P3 | +20.4 | 2,370 |
| P4 | 🇲🇨 |
|
C.Leclerc | 4 | — | +12 | 40 | P5 | +27.0 | 2,275 |
| P5 | 🇲🇽 |
|
S.Pérez | 8 | +3 | +10 | 32 | P6 | +18.4 | 2,287 |
| P6 | 🇦🇺 |
|
D.Ricciardo | 7 | +1 | +8 | 24 | P7 | +5.6 | 2,329 |
| P7 | 🇪🇸 |
|
C.Sainz | 6 | -1 | +6 | 20 | P8 | +2.8 | 2,299 |
| P8 | 🇬🇧 |
|
L.Norris | 9 | +1 | +4 | 41 | P4 | -7.2 | 2,322 |
| P9 | 🇫🇷 |
|
E.Ocon | 5 | -4 | +2 | 10 | P9 | +2.5 | 2,209 |
| P10 | 🇫🇷 |
|
P.Gasly | 12 | +2 | +1 | 8 | P10 | +1.2 | 2,173 |
| P11 | 🇨🇦 |
|
L.Stroll | 11 | — | 0 | 5 | P11 | -0.8 | 2,142 |
| P12 | 🇫🇮 |
|
K.Räikkönen | 17 | +5 | 0 | 0 | P14 | +8.5 | 2,038 |
| P13 | 🇩🇪 |
|
S.Vettel | 13 | — | 0 | 0 | P16 | -4.7 | 2,079 |
| P14 | 🇬🇧 |
|
G.Russell | 15 | +1 | 0 | 0 | P17 | +5.4 | 1,964 |
| P15 | 🇮🇹 |
|
A.Giovinazzi | 14 | -1 | 0 | 0 | P15 | -7.1 | 2,004 |
| P16 | 🇨🇦 |
|
N.Latifi | 19 | +3 | 0 | 0 | P19 | +2.5 | 1,877 |
| P17 | 🇪🇸 |
|
F.Alonso | 10 | -7 | 0 | 5 | P12 | -21.2 | 2,006 |
| P18 | 🇩🇪 |
|
M.Schumacher | 18 | — | 0 | 0 | P18 | -19.3 | 1,945 |
| P19 | 🇷🇺 |
|
N.Mazepin | 20 | +1 | 0 | 0 | P20 | -21.2 | 1,907 |
| DNF | 🇯🇵 |
|
Y.Tsunoda | 16 | 0 | 2 | P13 | -39.5 | 1,990 |