Top 3
Beat the estimateNo comparable estimates available for this race yet.
Kings of this circuit
The race, in perspective
R172021
Race debrief
What did we expect after qualifying—and who beat it?
Share this debrief
20 stored results
20/20 Elo snapshots
20/20 numbered grid slots
0/20 qualifying results
Elo × qualifying → race result
Experimental · v1
Did they beat the expectation?
A strong driver recovering from a poor qualifying position isn't automatically a surprise. This model estimates a finish from both inputs, then compares it with what happened.
Expected finish assumes a classified finish. DNFs stay in the full grid but receive no performance verdict. Qualifying is not the starting grid; grid differences are flagged, not silently substituted.
Fit on 639 earlier finishes across 37 races, 2011–2021. No results from this race enter its expectation.
0/20 entrants have an estimate. Missing Elo or qualifying stays visible below; a grid position is not used as a qualifying result.
Flop 3
Below the estimateNo comparable estimates available for this race yet.
0/20 entrants assessed. Up to three per side, ranked by expected minus actual finish. DNFs, missing estimates and gaps rounding to 0.0 are excluded. “Flop” means below the model's estimate—not poor driving. A ranked gap can still be inside the usual error range.
| Driver | Pre-race Elo | Qualifying | Expected | Result | P1 ← position → P20 | vs expected | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. VerstappenRed Bull | #22382 | — | —No error range | P1 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| L. HamiltonMercedes | #12536 | — | —No error range | P2 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| S. PérezRed Bull | #72267 | — | —No error range | P3 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| C. LeclercFerrari | #82256 | — | —No error range | P4 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| D. RicciardoMcLaren | #62296 | — | —No error range | P5 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| V. BottasMercedes | #32378 | — | —No error range | P6 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| C. SainzFerrari | #42344 | — | —No error range | P7 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| L. NorrisMcLaren | #52317 | — | —No error range | P8 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| Y. TsunodaAlphaTauri | #171993 | — | —No error range | P9 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| S. VettelAston Martin | #152054 | — | —No error range | P10 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| A. GiovinazziAlfa Romeo | #162034 | — | —No error range | P11 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| L. StrollAston Martin | #122118 | — | —No error range | P12 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| K. RäikkönenAlfa Romeo | #142064 | — | —No error range | P13 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| G. RussellWilliams | #132083 | — | —No error range | P14 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| N. LatifiWilliams | #181954 | — | —No error range | P15 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| M. SchumacherHaas F1 Team | #191868 | — | —No error range | P16 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| N. MazepinHaas F1 Team | #201830 | — | —No error range | P17 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| F. AlonsoAlpine F1 Team | #102190 | — | —No error range | DNFRear wing | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| E. OconAlpine F1 Team | #112162 | — | —No error range | DNFMechanical | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| P. GaslyAlphaTauri | #92201 | — | —No error range | DNFSuspension | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable |
How useful is the model? See the historical check
Average absolute error on 639 classified finishes in 37 earlier races within the last ten years. Each race was held out and predicted using only older races; all three models use the same samples.
- Elo + qualifying
- 2.20places
- Qualifying only
- 2.43places
- Elo only
- 2.69places
The range scales the 80th percentile of earlier held-out absolute errors to this field size, rounding outward. It is an empirical error guide, not a guaranteed 80% chance for a particular driver. We require at least five checked races and 100 checked finishes before showing it.
Inputs are field-normalised Elo rank and qualifying position. The target is position among all race entries, trained only on classified finishers. Estimates are averages, not a unique predicted finishing order. Penalties, the circuit, weather, incidents and strategy aren't model inputs. Historical qualifying coverage is patchy; this is an exploratory backtest on corrected records, not proof of live forecasting accuracy.
The rating ledger
What changed in Elo?
These are actual rating changes. The expectation model above does not change Elo or fantasy scoring.
The bigger picture
Championship after this round
Top five in the stored standings. Points include sprint results where applicable.
- 1 Verstappen 287.5pts 0
- 2 Hamilton 275.5pts 0
- 3 Bottas 185pts 0
- 4 Pérez 150pts +1
- 5 Norris 149pts −1
Movement since round 16. A dash means the earlier standing is unavailable.
Explore the season →
Across the garage
Teammate results
Two-driver constructor entries from this race. A result comparison, not an adjustment for strategy or reliability.
Red Bull
VerstappenP1+28.9 Elo
PérezP3+31.2 Elo
2 places apart at the finish.
Mercedes
HamiltonP2+8.3 Elo
BottasP6−0.6 Elo
4 places apart at the finish.
Ferrari
LeclercP4+26.7 Elo
SainzP7−2.7 Elo
3 places apart at the finish.
McLaren
RicciardoP5+15.5 Elo
NorrisP8−5.3 Elo
3 places apart at the finish.
AlphaTauri
TsunodaP9+32.2 Elo
GaslyDNF−61.9 Elo
Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.
Aston Martin
VettelP10+18.5 Elo
StrollP12−2.2 Elo
2 places apart at the finish.
Alfa Romeo
GiovinazziP11+15.1 Elo
RäikkönenP13−0.9 Elo
2 places apart at the finish.
Williams
RussellP14−9.5 Elo
LatifiP15+0.7 Elo
1 place apart at the finish.
Haas F1 Team
SchumacherP16+3.7 Elo
MazepinP17+1.0 Elo
1 place apart at the finish.
Alpine F1 Team
AlonsoDNF−48.3 Elo
OconDNF−50.4 Elo
Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.
What this analysis can—and cannot—tell you
This debrief is calculated from stored results and rating snapshots. The experimental expectation model learns from earlier races only, using Elo rank and qualifying together; it never feeds back into Elo. It is not a separately reviewed race report.
Elo uses the result order, including retirements. It does not isolate driver skill from the car, reliability, penalties or strategy. Elo seed comparisons use pre-race ratings, never today's ratings. Equal ratings share the midpoint of their rank range (for example, tied first and second become seed 1.5).
Grid gains use numbered starting slots and classified finishes only. Zero or missing grid values are excluded; a position gained is not necessarily an overtake. Qualifying gaps use the latest segment both teammates have a valid time for, never Q1 against Q3.
Lap-by-lap pace, tyre stints, pit-stop execution and safety-car effects are not available in this report. Missing data is omitted, not inferred.
Read the Elo methodology →Race
Qualifying
| # | Driver | Grid | +/- | Points | Season Pts | Season # | Elo Change | Elo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | 🇳🇱 |
|
M.Verstappen | 1 | — | +25 | 287.5 | P1 | +28.9 | 2,411 |
| P2 | 🇬🇧 |
|
L.Hamilton | 2 | — | +19 | 275.5 | P2 | +8.3 | 2,544 |
| P3 | 🇲🇽 |
|
S.Pérez | 3 | — | +15 | 150 | P4 | +31.2 | 2,298 |
| P4 | 🇲🇨 |
|
C.Leclerc | 4 | — | +12 | 128 | P6 | +26.7 | 2,283 |
| P5 | 🇦🇺 |
|
D.Ricciardo | 6 | +1 | +10 | 105 | P8 | +15.5 | 2,311 |
| P6 | 🇫🇮 |
|
V.Bottas | 9 | +3 | +8 | 185 | P3 | -0.6 | 2,377 |
| P7 | 🇪🇸 |
|
C.Sainz | 5 | -2 | +6 | 122.5 | P7 | -2.7 | 2,342 |
| P8 | 🇬🇧 |
|
L.Norris | 7 | -1 | +4 | 149 | P5 | -5.3 | 2,311 |
| P9 | 🇯🇵 |
|
Y.Tsunoda | 10 | +1 | +2 | 20 | P14 | +32.2 | 2,025 |
| P10 | 🇩🇪 |
|
S.Vettel | 18 | +8 | +1 | 36 | P12 | +18.5 | 2,072 |
| P11 | 🇮🇹 |
|
A.Giovinazzi | 12 | +1 | 0 | 1 | P18 | +15.1 | 2,049 |
| P12 | 🇨🇦 |
|
L.Stroll | 13 | +1 | 0 | 26 | P13 | -2.2 | 2,115 |
| P13 | 🇫🇮 |
|
K.Räikkönen | 15 | +2 | 0 | 6 | P17 | -0.9 | 2,063 |
| P14 | 🇬🇧 |
|
G.Russell | 20 | +6 | 0 | 16 | P15 | -9.5 | 2,074 |
| P15 | 🇨🇦 |
|
N.Latifi | 14 | -1 | 0 | 7 | P16 | +0.7 | 1,955 |
| P16 | 🇩🇪 |
|
M.Schumacher | 16 | — | 0 | 0 | P19 | +3.7 | 1,872 |
| P17 | 🇷🇺 |
|
N.Mazepin | 17 | — | 0 | 0 | P21 | +1.0 | 1,831 |
| DNF | 🇪🇸 |
|
F.Alonso | 19 | 0 | 58 | P10 | -48.3 | 2,142 | |
| DNF | 🇫🇷 |
|
E.Ocon | 11 | 0 | 46 | P11 | -50.4 | 2,112 | |
| DNF | 🇫🇷 |
|
P.Gasly | 8 | 0 | 74 | P9 | -61.9 | 2,140 |