Round 19 · 2021

Autódromo José Carlos Pace

São Paulo, Brazil · November 14, 2021 · Circuit History · Wikipedia

Kings of this circuit
L.Hamilton 3 S.Vettel 3 M.Verstappen 3
The race, in perspective

Race debrief

What did we expect after qualifying—and who beat it?

R192021
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20 stored results 20/20 Elo snapshots 19/20 numbered grid slots 0/20 qualifying results
Elo × qualifying → race result

Did they beat the expectation?

A strong driver recovering from a poor qualifying position isn't automatically a surprise. This model estimates a finish from both inputs, then compares it with what happened.

Experimental · v1

Expected finish assumes a classified finish. DNFs stay in the full grid but receive no performance verdict. Qualifying is not the starting grid; grid differences are flagged, not silently substituted.

Fit on 620 earlier finishes across 36 races, 2012–2021. No results from this race enter its expectation.

0/20 entrants have an estimate. Missing Elo or qualifying stays visible below; a grid position is not used as a qualifying result.

Top 3

Beat the estimate

No comparable estimates available for this race yet.

Flop 3

Below the estimate

No comparable estimates available for this race yet.

0/20 entrants assessed. Up to three per side, ranked by expected minus actual finish. DNFs, missing estimates and gaps rounding to 0.0 are excluded. “Flop” means below the model's estimate—not poor driving. A ranked gap can still be inside the usual error range.

DriverPre-race EloQualifyingExpectedResultP1 ← position → P20vs expectedReading
L. HamiltonMercedes #12552 — —No error range P1 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
M. VerstappenRed Bull #22437 — —No error range P2 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
V. BottasMercedes #52322 — —No error range P3 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
S. PérezRed Bull #42325 — —No error range P4 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
C. LeclercFerrari #62300 — —No error range P5 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
C. SainzFerrari #32345 — —No error range P6 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
P. GaslyAlphaTauri #92182 — —No error range P7 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
E. OconAlpine F1 Team #122104 — —No error range P8 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
F. AlonsoAlpine F1 Team #102154 — —No error range P9 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
L. NorrisMcLaren #72295 — —No error range P10 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
S. VettelAston Martin #112106 — —No error range P11 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
K. RäikkönenAlfa Romeo #142092 — Grid unnumbered —No error range P12 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
G. RussellWilliams #162053 — —No error range P13 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
A. GiovinazziAlfa Romeo #152062 — —No error range P14 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
Y. TsunodaAlphaTauri #171987 — —No error range P15 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
N. LatifiWilliams #181944 — —No error range P16 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
N. MazepinHaas F1 Team #201826 — —No error range P17 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
M. SchumacherHaas F1 Team #191857 — —No error range P18 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
D. RicciardoMcLaren #82282 — —No error range DNFPower loss — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
L. StrollAston Martin #132101 — —No error range DNFCollision damage — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
How useful is the model? See the historical check

Average absolute error on 620 classified finishes in 36 earlier races within the last ten years. Each race was held out and predicted using only older races; all three models use the same samples.

Elo + qualifying
2.21places
Qualifying only
2.44places
Elo only
2.70places

The range scales the 80th percentile of earlier held-out absolute errors to this field size, rounding outward. It is an empirical error guide, not a guaranteed 80% chance for a particular driver. We require at least five checked races and 100 checked finishes before showing it.

Inputs are field-normalised Elo rank and qualifying position. The target is position among all race entries, trained only on classified finishers. Estimates are averages, not a unique predicted finishing order. Penalties, the circuit, weather, incidents and strategy aren't model inputs. Historical qualifying coverage is patchy; this is an exploratory backtest on corrected records, not proof of live forecasting accuracy.

The rating ledger

What changed in Elo?

These are actual rating changes. The expectation model above does not change Elo or fantasy scoring.

Largest Elo gain

Bottas+24.1 Elo

Largest grid-to-finish gain

Hamilton+9 places

The bigger picture

Championship after this round

Top five in the stored standings. Points include sprint results where applicable.

  1. 1 Verstappen 332.5pts 0
  2. 2 Hamilton 318.5pts 0
  3. 3 Bottas 203pts 0
  4. 4 Pérez 178pts 0
  5. 5 Norris 151pts 0

Movement since round 18. A dash means the earlier standing is unavailable.

Explore the season →
Across the garage

Teammate results

Two-driver constructor entries from this race. A result comparison, not an adjustment for strategy or reliability.

What this analysis can—and cannot—tell you

This debrief is calculated from stored results and rating snapshots. The experimental expectation model learns from earlier races only, using Elo rank and qualifying together; it never feeds back into Elo. It is not a separately reviewed race report.

Elo uses the result order, including retirements. It does not isolate driver skill from the car, reliability, penalties or strategy. Elo seed comparisons use pre-race ratings, never today's ratings. Equal ratings share the midpoint of their rank range (for example, tied first and second become seed 1.5).

Grid gains use numbered starting slots and classified finishes only. Zero or missing grid values are excluded; a position gained is not necessarily an overtake. Qualifying gaps use the latest segment both teammates have a valid time for, never Q1 against Q3.

Lap-by-lap pace, tyre stints, pit-stop execution and safety-car effects are not available in this report. Missing data is omitted, not inferred.

Read the Elo methodology →
20
Result Entries
2,166
Avg Elo
2,566
Highest Elo (Hamilton)
2
Non-finishes

Race

Qualifying

# Driver Grid +/- Points Season Pts Season # Elo Change Elo
P1 🇬🇧 L.Hamilton 10 +9 +25 318.5 P2 +13.4 2,566
P2 🇳🇱 M.Verstappen 2 — +18 332.5 P1 +17.3 2,454
P3 🇫🇮 V.Bottas 1 -2 +15 203 P3 +24.1 2,347
P4 🇲🇽 S.Pérez 4 — +13 178 P4 +17.8 2,343
P5 🇲🇨 C.Leclerc 6 +1 +10 148 P6 +15.0 2,315
P6 🇪🇸 C.Sainz 3 -3 +8 139.5 P7 +3.3 2,349
P7 🇫🇷 P.Gasly 7 — +6 92 P9 +18.8 2,201
P8 🇫🇷 E.Ocon 8 — +4 50 P11 +23.5 2,128
P9 🇪🇸 F.Alonso 12 +3 +2 62 P10 +10.6 2,165
P10 🇬🇧 L.Norris 5 -5 +1 151 P5 -14.4 2,280
P11 🇩🇪 S.Vettel 9 -2 0 42 P12 +5.2 2,111
P12 🇫🇮 K.Räikkönen 0 0 10 P16 +1.1 2,093
P13 🇬🇧 G.Russell 17 +4 0 16 P15 +0.3 2,054
P14 🇮🇹 A.Giovinazzi 13 -1 0 1 P18 -6.8 2,055
P15 🇯🇵 Y.Tsunoda 15 — 0 20 P14 -3.4 1,984
P16 🇨🇦 N.Latifi 16 — 0 7 P17 -4.3 1,939
P17 🇷🇺 N.Mazepin 19 +2 0 0 P21 +1.1 1,827
P18 🇩🇪 M.Schumacher 18 — 0 0 P19 -7.6 1,849
DNF 🇦🇺 D.Ricciardo 11 0 105 P8 -66.9 2,216
DNF 🇨🇦 L.Stroll 14 0 26 P13 -48.2 2,053

Qualifying results are not available for this race.

Elo Changes