Round 5 · 2023

Miami International Autodrome

Miami, USA · May 07, 2023 · Circuit History · Wikipedia

The race, in perspective

Race debrief

What did we expect after qualifying—and who beat it?

R052023
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20 stored results 20/20 Elo snapshots 20/20 numbered grid slots 20/20 qualifying results
Elo × qualifying → race result

Did they beat the expectation?

A strong driver recovering from a poor qualifying position isn't automatically a surprise. This model estimates a finish from both inputs, then compares it with what happened.

Experimental · v1

Expected finish assumes a classified finish. DNFs stay in the full grid but receive no performance verdict. Qualifying is not the starting grid; grid differences are flagged, not silently substituted.

Fit on 600 earlier finishes across 36 races, 2013–2022. No results from this race enter its expectation.

Top 3

Beat the estimate
  1. Max Verstappen Red Bull · Elo #1 · Q9

    Expected P5.4 Finished P1

    +4.4places
  2. Lewis Hamilton Mercedes · Elo #3 · Q13

    Expected P7.8 Finished P6

    +1.8places
  3. Yuki Tsunoda AlphaTauri · Elo #13 · Q17

    Expected P12.7 Finished P11

    +1.7places

Flop 3

Below the estimate
  1. Lando Norris McLaren · Elo #8 · Q16

    Expected P10.7 Finished P17

    −6.3places
  2. Nico Hülkenberg Haas F1 Team · Elo #12 · Q12

    Expected P10.1 Finished P15

    −4.9places
  3. Oscar Piastri McLaren · Elo #15 · Q19

    Expected P14.2 Finished P19

    −4.8places

20/20 entrants assessed. Up to three per side, ranked by expected minus actual finish. DNFs, missing estimates and gaps rounding to 0.0 are excluded. “Flop” means below the model's estimate—not poor driving. A ranked gap can still be inside the usual error range.

DriverPre-race EloQualifyingExpectedResultP1 ← position → P20vs expectedReading
M. VerstappenRed Bull #12620 P9 P5.4P2–P9 P1 +4.4places Above range
S. PérezRed Bull #22500 P1 P2.1P1–P6 P2 +0.1places In range
F. AlonsoAston Martin #72289 P2 P4.1P1–P8 P3 +1.1places In range
G. RussellMercedes #42330 P6 P5.0P1–P9 P4 +1.0places In range
C. SainzFerrari #52321 P3 P3.9P1–P8 P5 −1.1places In range
L. HamiltonMercedes #32415 P13 P7.8P4–P11 P6 +1.8places In range
C. LeclercFerrari #62309 P7 P6.0P2–P10 P7 −1.0places In range
P. GaslyAlpine F1 Team #112106 P5 P6.7P3–P10 P8 −1.3places In range
E. OconAlpine F1 Team #102154 P8 P7.7P4–P11 P9 −1.3places In range
K. MagnussenHaas F1 Team #182005 P4 P8.4P5–P12 P10 −1.6places In range
Y. TsunodaAlphaTauri #132070 P17 P12.7P9–P16 P11 +1.7places In range
L. StrollAston Martin #92174 P18 P11.9P8–P16 P12 −0.1places In range
V. BottasAlfa Romeo #142039 P10 P9.9P6–P14 P13 −3.1places In range
A. AlbonWilliams #172005 P11 P11.3P8–P15 P14 −2.7places In range
N. HülkenbergHaas F1 Team #122087 P12 P10.1P6–P14 P15 −4.9places Below range
G. ZhouAlfa Romeo #162018 P14 P12.3P9–P16 P16 −3.7places In range
L. NorrisMcLaren #82193 P16 P10.7P7–P14 P17 −6.3places Below range
N. de VriesAlphaTauri #191986 P15 P13.7P10–P17 P18 −4.3places Below range
O. PiastriMcLaren #152029 P19 P14.2P11–P18 P19 −4.8places Below range
L. SargeantWilliams #201985 P20 P16.2P13–P20 P20 −3.8places In range
How useful is the model? See the historical check

Average absolute error on 600 classified finishes in 36 earlier races within the last ten years. Each race was held out and predicted using only older races; all three models use the same samples.

Elo + qualifying
2.08places
Qualifying only
2.27places
Elo only
2.53places

The range scales the 80th percentile of earlier held-out absolute errors to this field size, rounding outward. It is an empirical error guide, not a guaranteed 80% chance for a particular driver. We require at least five checked races and 100 checked finishes before showing it.

Inputs are field-normalised Elo rank and qualifying position. The target is position among all race entries, trained only on classified finishers. Estimates are averages, not a unique predicted finishing order. Penalties, the circuit, weather, incidents and strategy aren't model inputs. Historical qualifying coverage is patchy; this is an exploratory backtest on corrected records, not proof of live forecasting accuracy.

The rating ledger

What changed in Elo?

These are actual rating changes. The expectation model above does not change Elo or fantasy scoring.

Largest Elo gain

Alonso+29.2 Elo

Largest Elo loss

Norris−42.0 Elo

The bigger picture

Championship after this round

Top five in the stored standings. Points include sprint results where applicable.

  1. 1 Verstappen 119pts 0
  2. 2 Pérez 105pts 0
  3. 3 Alonso 75pts 0
  4. 4 Hamilton 56pts 0
  5. 5 Sainz 44pts 0

Movement since round 4. A dash means the earlier standing is unavailable.

Explore the season →
Across the garage

Teammate results

Two-driver constructor entries from this race. A result comparison, not an adjustment for strategy or reliability.

Ferrari

SainzP5+13.1 Elo
LeclercP7+2.7 Elo

2 places apart at the finish.

Q3 · Sainz 0.512s faster

Alfa Romeo

BottasP13+3.4 Elo
ZhouP16−11.8 Elo

3 places apart at the finish.

Q2 · Bottas 0.527s faster

Williams

AlbonP14+1.9 Elo
SargeantP20−31.6 Elo

6 places apart at the finish.

Q1 · Albon 0.343s faster

McLaren

NorrisP17−42.0 Elo
PiastriP19−31.3 Elo

2 places apart at the finish.

Q1 · Norris 0.090s faster

What this analysis can—and cannot—tell you

This debrief is calculated from stored results and rating snapshots. The experimental expectation model learns from earlier races only, using Elo rank and qualifying together; it never feeds back into Elo. It is not a separately reviewed race report.

Elo uses the result order, including retirements. It does not isolate driver skill from the car, reliability, penalties or strategy. Elo seed comparisons use pre-race ratings, never today's ratings. Equal ratings share the midpoint of their rank range (for example, tied first and second become seed 1.5).

Grid gains use numbered starting slots and classified finishes only. Zero or missing grid values are excluded; a position gained is not necessarily an overtake. Qualifying gaps use the latest segment both teammates have a valid time for, never Q1 against Q3.

Lap-by-lap pace, tyre stints, pit-stop execution and safety-car effects are not available in this report. Missing data is omitted, not inferred.

Read the Elo methodology →
20
Result Entries
2,182
Avg Elo
2,631
Highest Elo (Verstappen)

Race

Qualifying

# Driver Grid +/- Points Season Pts Season # Elo Change Elo
P1 🇳🇱 M.Verstappen 9 +8 +26 119 P1 +10.2 2,631
P2 🇲🇽 S.Pérez 1 -1 +18 105 P2 +12.7 2,513
P3 🇪🇸 F.Alonso 2 -1 +15 75 P3 +29.2 2,318
P4 🇬🇧 G.Russell 6 +2 +12 40 P6 +18.1 2,348
P5 🇪🇸 C.Sainz 3 -2 +10 44 P5 +13.1 2,334
P6 🇬🇧 L.Hamilton 13 +7 +8 56 P4 -3.4 2,412
P7 🇲🇨 C.Leclerc 7 — +6 34 P7 +2.7 2,312
P8 🇫🇷 P.Gasly 5 -3 +4 8 P10 +24.3 2,130
P9 🇫🇷 E.Ocon 8 -1 +2 6 P12 +11.5 2,165
P10 🇩🇰 K.Magnussen 4 -6 +1 2 P17 +26.0 2,031
P11 🇯🇵 Y.Tsunoda 17 +6 0 2 P16 +11.2 2,082
P12 🇨🇦 L.Stroll 18 +6 0 27 P8 -9.3 2,164
P13 🇫🇮 V.Bottas 10 -3 0 4 P13 +3.4 2,043
P14 🇹🇭 A.Albon 11 -3 0 1 P18 +1.9 2,007
P15 🇩🇪 N.Hülkenberg 12 -3 0 6 P11 -15.1 2,072
P16 🇨🇳 G.Zhou 14 -2 0 2 P15 -11.8 2,006
P17 🇬🇧 L.Norris 16 -1 0 10 P9 -42.0 2,151
P18 🇳🇱 N.de Vries 15 -3 0 0 P20 -19.7 1,966
P19 🇦🇺 O.Piastri 19 — 0 4 P14 -31.3 1,998
P20 🇺🇸 L.Sargeant 20 — 0 0 P19 -31.6 1,953
# Driver Q1 Q2 Q3 Gap Elo
1 🇲🇽 S.Pérez 1:27.713 1:27.328 1:26.841 1:26.841 1,955
2 🇪🇸 F.Alonso 1:28.179 1:27.097 1:27.202 +0.361 2,002
3 🇪🇸 C.Sainz 1:27.686 1:27.148 1:27.349 +0.508 2,061
4 🇩🇰 K.Magnussen 1:27.809 1:27.673 1:27.767 +0.926 2,056
5 🇫🇷 P.Gasly 1:28.061 1:27.612 1:27.786 +0.945 2,203
6 🇬🇧 G.Russell 1:28.086 1:27.743 1:27.804 +0.963 2,405
7 🇲🇨 C.Leclerc 1:27.713 1:26.964 1:27.861 +1.02 2,308
8 🇫🇷 E.Ocon 1:27.872 1:27.444 1:27.935 +1.094 2,035
9 🇳🇱 M.Verstappen 1:27.363 1:26.814 +-0.027 2,335
10 🇫🇮 V.Bottas 1:27.864 1:27.564 +0.723 1,862
11 🇹🇭 A.Albon 1:28.234 1:27.795 — +0.954 1,979
12 🇩🇪 N.Hülkenberg 1:27.945 1:27.903 — +1.062 2,099
13 🇬🇧 L.Hamilton 1:27.846 1:27.975 — +1.134 2,437
14 🇨🇳 G.Zhou 1:28.180 1:28.091 — +1.25 1,961
15 🇳🇱 N.de Vries 1:28.325 1:28.395 — +1.554 1,945
16 🇬🇧 L.Norris 1:28.394 — — +1.553 2,417
17 🇯🇵 Y.Tsunoda 1:28.429 — — +1.588 2,130
18 🇨🇦 L.Stroll 1:28.476 — — +1.635 1,901
19 🇦🇺 O.Piastri 1:28.484 — — +1.643 2,316
20 🇺🇸 L.Sargeant 1:28.577 — — +1.736 1,884
Data: Jolpica (Ergast) API

Elo Changes