Round 4 · 2026

Miami International Autodrome

Miami, USA · May 03, 2026 · Circuit History · Wikipedia

The race, in perspective

Race debrief

What did we expect after qualifying—and who beat it?

R042026
Share this debrief
Preview share card ↗
22 stored results 22/22 Elo snapshots 22/22 numbered grid slots 22/22 qualifying results
Elo × qualifying → race result

Did they beat the expectation?

A strong driver recovering from a poor qualifying position isn't automatically a surprise. This model estimates a finish from both inputs, then compares it with what happened.

Experimental · v1

Expected finish assumes a classified finish. DNFs stay in the full grid but receive no performance verdict. Qualifying is not the starting grid; grid differences are flagged, not silently substituted.

Fit on 703 earlier finishes across 42 races, 2016–2026. No results from this race enter its expectation.

Top 3

Beat the estimate
  1. Gabriel Bortoleto Audi · Elo #18 · Q22

    Expected P17.0 Finished P12

    +5.0places
  2. Alexander Albon Williams · Elo #19 · Q16

    Expected P14.4 Finished P10

    +4.4places
  3. Franco Colapinto Alpine F1 Team · Elo #20 · Q8

    Expected P10.9 Finished P7

    +3.9places

Flop 3

Below the estimate
  1. Charles Leclerc Ferrari · Elo #3 · Q3

    Expected P3.5 Finished P8

    −4.5places
  2. Max Verstappen Red Bull · Elo #2 · Q2

    Expected P2.7 Finished P5

    −2.3places
  3. Esteban Ocon Haas F1 Team · Elo #11 · Q15

    Expected P11.6 Finished P13

    −1.4places

18/22 entrants assessed. Up to three per side, ranked by expected minus actual finish. DNFs, missing estimates and gaps rounding to 0.0 are excluded. “Flop” means below the model's estimate—not poor driving. A ranked gap can still be inside the usual error range.

DriverPre-race EloQualifyingExpectedResultP1 ← position → P22vs expectedReading
A. AntonelliMercedes #52353 P1 P3.1P1–P7 P1 +2.1places In range
L. NorrisMcLaren #42397 P4 P4.3P1–P8 P2 +2.3places In range
O. PiastriMcLaren #62334 P7 P6.3P2–P10 P3 +3.3places In range
G. RussellMercedes #12507 P5 P3.9P1–P8 P4 −0.1places In range
M. VerstappenRed Bull #22494 P2 P2.7P1–P7 P5 −2.3places In range
L. HamiltonFerrari #72311 P6 P6.1P2–P10 P6 +0.1places In range
F. ColapintoAlpine F1 Team #201988 P8 P10.9P7–P15 P7 +3.9places In range
C. LeclercFerrari #32408 P3 P3.5P1–P8 P8 −4.5places In range
C. SainzWilliams #92139 P14 Grid P13 P10.5P6–P15 P9 +1.5places In range
A. AlbonWilliams #192025 P16 Grid P15 P14.4P10–P19 P10 +4.4places In range
O. BearmanHaas F1 Team #82142 P13 Grid P12 P9.8P6–P14 P11 −1.2places In range
G. BortoletoAudi #182036 P22 Grid P21 P17.0P13–P21 P12 +5.0places Above range
E. OconHaas F1 Team #112123 P15 Grid P14 P11.6P7–P16 P13 −1.4places In range
A. LindbladRB F1 Team #172055 P17 Grid P16 P14.3P10–P18 P14 +0.3places In range
F. AlonsoAston Martin #142081 P18 Grid P17 P13.9P10–P18 P15 −1.1places In range
S. PérezCadillac F1 Team #162069 P21 Grid P20 P15.9P12–P20 P16 −0.1places In range
L. StrollAston Martin #211976 P19 Grid P18 P16.4P12–P21 P17 −0.6places In range
V. BottasCadillac F1 Team #221944 P20 Grid P19 P17.2P13–P21 P18 −0.8places In range
N. HülkenbergAudi #152069 P11 Grid P10 P10.8P7–P15 DNFRetired — Not assessedDNF: Retired
L. LawsonRB F1 Team #102135 P12 Grid P11 P9.9P6–P14 DNFRetired — Not assessedDNF: Retired
P. GaslyAlpine F1 Team #132096 P10 Grid P9 P9.8P6–P14 DNFRetired — Not assessedDNF: Retired
I. HadjarRed Bull #122104 P9 Grid P22 P9.0P5–P13 DNFRetired — Not assessedDNF: Retired
How useful is the model? See the historical check

Average absolute error on 703 classified finishes in 42 earlier races within the last ten years. Each race was held out and predicted using only older races; all three models use the same samples.

Elo + qualifying
2.19places
Qualifying only
2.36places
Elo only
2.71places

The range scales the 80th percentile of earlier held-out absolute errors to this field size, rounding outward. It is an empirical error guide, not a guaranteed 80% chance for a particular driver. We require at least five checked races and 100 checked finishes before showing it.

Inputs are field-normalised Elo rank and qualifying position. The target is position among all race entries, trained only on classified finishers. Estimates are averages, not a unique predicted finishing order. Penalties, the circuit, weather, incidents and strategy aren't model inputs. Historical qualifying coverage is patchy; this is an exploratory backtest on corrected records, not proof of live forecasting accuracy.

The rating ledger

What changed in Elo?

These are actual rating changes. The expectation model above does not change Elo or fantasy scoring.

Largest Elo loss

Hadjar−51.0 Elo

Largest grid-to-finish gain

Bortoleto+9 places

The bigger picture

Championship after this round

Top five in the stored standings. Points include sprint results where applicable.

  1. 1 Antonelli 100pts 0
  2. 2 Russell 80pts 0
  3. 3 Leclerc 59pts 0
  4. 4 Norris 51pts +1
  5. 5 Hamilton 51pts −1

Movement since round 3. A dash means the earlier standing is unavailable.

Explore the season →
Across the garage

Teammate results

Two-driver constructor entries from this race. A result comparison, not an adjustment for strategy or reliability.

McLaren

NorrisP2+23.1 Elo
PiastriP3+24.8 Elo

1 place apart at the finish.

Q3 · Norris 0.317s faster

Red Bull

VerstappenP5−3.8 Elo
HadjarDNF−51.0 Elo

Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.

Q3 · Verstappen 0.825s faster

Williams

SainzP9+18.0 Elo
AlbonP10+29.0 Elo

1 place apart at the finish.

Q2 · Sainz 0.378s faster

Audi

BortoletoP12+16.1 Elo
HülkenbergDNF−28.7 Elo

Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.

Q1 · Hülkenberg 4.092s faster

RB F1 Team

LindbladP14+1.9 Elo
LawsonDNF−44.2 Elo

Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.

Q1 · Lawson 0.538s faster

What this analysis can—and cannot—tell you

This debrief is calculated from stored results and rating snapshots. The experimental expectation model learns from earlier races only, using Elo rank and qualifying together; it never feeds back into Elo. It is not a separately reviewed race report.

Elo uses the result order, including retirements. It does not isolate driver skill from the car, reliability, penalties or strategy. Elo seed comparisons use pre-race ratings, never today's ratings. Equal ratings share the midpoint of their rank range (for example, tied first and second become seed 1.5).

Grid gains use numbered starting slots and classified finishes only. Zero or missing grid values are excluded; a position gained is not necessarily an overtake. Qualifying gaps use the latest segment both teammates have a valid time for, never Q1 against Q3.

Lap-by-lap pace, tyre stints, pit-stop execution and safety-car effects are not available in this report. Missing data is omitted, not inferred.

Read the Elo methodology →
22
Result Entries
2,172
Avg Elo
2,508
Highest Elo (Russell)
12
Non-finishes

Race

Sprint

Qualifying

# Driver Grid +/- Points Season Pts Season # Elo Change Elo
P1 🇮🇹 A.Antonelli 1 — +25 100 P1 +33.9 2,387
P2 🇬🇧 L.Norris 4 +2 +18 51 P4 +23.1 2,420
P3 🇦🇺 O.Piastri 7 +4 +15 43 P6 +24.8 2,359
P4 🇬🇧 G.Russell 5 +1 +12 80 P2 +0.8 2,508
P5 🇳🇱 M.Verstappen 2 -3 +10 26 P7 -3.8 2,490
P6 🇬🇧 L.Hamilton 6 — +8 51 P5 +10.7 2,321
P7 🇦🇷 F.Colapinto 8 +1 +6 7 P11 +51.3 2,039
P8 🇲🇨 C.Leclerc 3 -5 +4 59 P3 -12.4 2,396
P9 🇪🇸 C.Sainz 13 +4 +2 4 P14 +18.0 2,157
P10 🇹🇭 A.Albon 15 +5 +1 1 P17 +29.0 2,054
P11 🇬🇧 O.Bearman 12 +1 0 17 P8 +6.2 2,148
P12 🇧🇷 G.Bortoleto 21 +9 0 2 P15 +16.1 2,052
P13 🇫🇷 E.Ocon 14 +1 0 1 P16 -2.5 2,121
P14 🇬🇧 A.Lindblad 16 +2 0 4 P12 +1.9 2,057
P15 🇪🇸 F.Alonso 17 +2 0 0 P21 -7.5 2,073
P16 🇲🇽 S.Pérez 20 +4 0 0 P20 -11.5 2,057
P17 🇨🇦 L.Stroll 18 +1 0 0 P22 -4.2 1,971
P18 🇫🇮 V.Bottas 19 +1 0 0 P19 -6.0 1,938
DNF 🇩🇪 N.Hülkenberg 10 0 0 P18 -28.7 2,040
DNF 🇳🇿 L.Lawson 11 0 10 P10 -44.2 2,091
DNF 🇫🇷 P.Gasly 9 0 16 P9 -44.1 2,052
DNF 🇫🇷 I.Hadjar 22 0 4 P13 -51.0 2,053
# Driver Grid +/- Points Time Elo
P1 🇬🇧 L.Norris 1 — +8 29:15.045 2,417
P2 🇦🇺 O.Piastri 3 +1 +7 +3.766 2,316
P3 🇲🇨 C.Leclerc 4 +1 +6 +6.251 2,308
P4 🇬🇧 G.Russell 6 +2 +5 +12.951 2,405
P5 🇳🇱 M.Verstappen 5 — +4 +13.639 2,335
P6 🇮🇹 A.Antonelli 2 -4 +3 +13.777 2,441
P7 🇬🇧 L.Hamilton 7 — +2 +21.665 2,437
P8 🇫🇷 P.Gasly 10 +2 +1 +30.525 2,203
P9 🇫🇷 I.Hadjar 9 — 0 +35.346 2,286
P10 🇦🇷 F.Colapinto 8 -2 0 +36.970 2,135
P11 🇫🇷 E.Ocon 16 +5 0 +56.972 2,035
P12 🇬🇧 O.Bearman 13 +1 0 +57.365 2,020
P13 🇪🇸 C.Sainz 14 +1 0 +58.504 2,061
P14 🇳🇿 L.Lawson 15 +1 0 +59.358 2,216
P15 🇪🇸 F.Alonso 20 +5 0 +1:16.067 2,002
P16 🇲🇽 S.Pérez 17 +1 0 +1:16.691 1,955
P17 🇨🇦 L.Stroll 21 +4 0 +1:17.626 1,901
P18 🇹🇭 A.Albon 18 — 0 +1:28.173 1,979
P19 🇫🇮 V.Bottas 19 — 0 +1:29.597 1,862
DNS 🇩🇪 N.Hülkenberg 12 -8 0 Did not start 2,099
DNS 🇬🇧 A.Lindblad 22 +1 0 Did not start 2,187
DSQ 🇧🇷 G.Bortoleto 11 -11 0 Disqualified 2,161
Sprint results do not affect Elo ratings
# Driver Q1 Q2 Q3 Gap Elo
1 🇮🇹 A.Antonelli 1:28.653 1:28.289 1:27.798 1:27.798 2,441
2 🇳🇱 M.Verstappen 1:29.099 1:28.116 1:27.964 +0.166 2,335
3 🇲🇨 C.Leclerc 1:28.938 1:28.315 1:28.143 +0.345 2,308
4 🇬🇧 L.Norris 1:29.183 1:28.920 1:28.183 +0.385 2,417
5 🇬🇧 G.Russell 1:29.492 1:28.477 1:28.197 +0.399 2,405
6 🇬🇧 L.Hamilton 1:29.483 1:28.477 1:28.319 +0.521 2,437
7 🇦🇺 O.Piastri 1:29.920 1:28.332 1:28.500 +0.702 2,316
8 🇦🇷 F.Colapinto 1:29.584 1:28.975 1:28.762 +0.964 2,135
9 🇫🇷 I.Hadjar 1:29.324 1:28.941 1:28.789 +0.991 2,286
10 🇫🇷 P.Gasly 1:29.914 1:29.070 1:28.810 +1.012 2,203
11 🇩🇪 N.Hülkenberg 1:29.645 1:29.439 — +1.641 2,099
12 🇳🇿 L.Lawson 1:29.595 1:29.499 — +1.701 2,216
13 🇬🇧 O.Bearman 1:29.340 1:29.567 — +1.769 2,020
14 🇪🇸 C.Sainz 1:29.540 1:29.568 — +1.77 2,061
15 🇫🇷 E.Ocon 1:29.838 1:29.772 — +1.974 2,035
16 🇹🇭 A.Albon 1:29.720 1:29.946 — +2.148 1,979
17 🇬🇧 A.Lindblad 1:30.133 — — +2.335 2,187
18 🇪🇸 F.Alonso 1:31.098 — — +3.3 2,002
19 🇨🇦 L.Stroll 1:31.164 — — +3.366 1,901
20 🇫🇮 V.Bottas 1:31.629 — — +3.831 1,862
21 🇲🇽 S.Pérez 1:31.967 — — +4.169 1,955
22 🇧🇷 G.Bortoleto 1:33.737 — — +5.939 2,161
Data: Jolpica (Ergast) API

Elo Changes