Round 5 · 2026

Circuit Gilles Villeneuve

Montreal, Canada · May 24, 2026 · Circuit History · Wikipedia

Kings of this circuit
L.Hamilton 7
The race, in perspective

Race debrief

What did we expect after qualifying—and who beat it?

R052026
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22 stored results 22/22 Elo snapshots 22/22 numbered grid slots 22/22 qualifying results
Elo × qualifying → race result

Did they beat the expectation?

A strong driver recovering from a poor qualifying position isn't automatically a surprise. This model estimates a finish from both inputs, then compares it with what happened.

Experimental · v1

Expected finish assumes a classified finish. DNFs stay in the full grid but receive no performance verdict. Qualifying is not the starting grid; grid differences are flagged, not silently substituted.

Fit on 704 earlier finishes across 42 races, 2016–2026. No results from this race enter its expectation.

Top 3

Beat the estimate
  1. Franco Colapinto Alpine F1 Team · Elo #20 · Q10

    Expected P11.8 Finished P6

    +5.8places
  2. Pierre Gasly Alpine F1 Team · Elo #15 · Q14

    Expected P12.3 Finished P8

    +4.3places
  3. Lewis Hamilton Ferrari · Elo #7 · Q5

    Expected P5.7 Finished P2

    +3.7places

Flop 3

Below the estimate
  1. Oscar Piastri McLaren · Elo #6 · Q4

    Expected P4.9 Finished P11

    −6.1places
  2. Esteban Ocon Haas F1 Team · Elo #10 · Q17

    Expected P12.3 Finished P14

    −1.7places
  3. Gabriel Bortoleto Audi · Elo #18 · Q13

    Expected P12.7 Finished P13

    −0.3places

16/22 entrants assessed. Up to three per side, ranked by expected minus actual finish. DNFs, missing estimates and gaps rounding to 0.0 are excluded. “Flop” means below the model's estimate—not poor driving. A ranked gap can still be inside the usual error range.

DriverPre-race EloQualifyingExpectedResultP1 ← position → P22vs expectedReading
A. AntonelliMercedes #52383 P2 P3.6P1–P8 P1 +2.6places In range
L. HamiltonFerrari #72315 P5 P5.7P1–P10 P2 +3.7places In range
M. VerstappenRed Bull #22491 P6 P4.7P1–P9 P3 +1.7places In range
C. LeclercFerrari #42407 P8 P6.2P2–P10 P4 +2.2places In range
I. HadjarRed Bull #132059 P7 P8.4P4–P13 P5 +3.4places In range
F. ColapintoAlpine F1 Team #202028 P10 P11.8P8–P16 P6 +5.8places Above range
L. LawsonRB F1 Team #112096 P12 P10.2P6–P14 P7 +3.2places In range
P. GaslyAlpine F1 Team #152057 P14 P12.3P8–P16 P8 +4.3places In range
C. SainzWilliams #82155 P15 P10.8P7–P15 P9 +1.8places In range
O. BearmanHaas F1 Team #92147 P16 P11.5P7–P16 P10 +1.5places In range
O. PiastriMcLaren #62356 P4 P4.9P1–P9 P11 −6.1places Below range
N. HülkenbergAudi #192044 P11 P12.0P8–P16 P12 0.0places In range
G. BortoletoAudi #182050 P13 P12.7P9–P17 P13 −0.3places In range
E. OconHaas F1 Team #102121 P17 P12.3P8–P16 P14 −1.7places In range
L. StrollAston Martin #211972 P21 Grid P22 P17.4P13–P22 P15 +2.4places In range
V. BottasCadillac F1 Team #221939 P22 Grid P21 P18.2P14–P22 P16 +2.2places In range
S. PérezCadillac F1 Team #142059 P20 P14.9P11–P19 DNFRetired — Not assessedDNF: Retired
L. NorrisMcLaren #32417 P3 P3.5P1–P8 DNFRetired — Not assessedDNF: Retired
G. RussellMercedes #12508 P1 P2.0P1–P6 DNFRetired — Not assessedDNF: Retired
F. AlonsoAston Martin #122074 P19 P13.8P10–P18 DNFRetired — Not assessedDNF: Retired
A. AlbonWilliams #172051 P18 P14.8P11–P19 DNFRetired — Not assessedDNF: Retired
A. LindbladRB F1 Team #162057 P9 P10.2P6–P14 DNSDid not start — Not assessedDNS: Did not start
How useful is the model? See the historical check

Average absolute error on 704 classified finishes in 42 earlier races within the last ten years. Each race was held out and predicted using only older races; all three models use the same samples.

Elo + qualifying
2.20places
Qualifying only
2.36places
Elo only
2.71places

The range scales the 80th percentile of earlier held-out absolute errors to this field size, rounding outward. It is an empirical error guide, not a guaranteed 80% chance for a particular driver. We require at least five checked races and 100 checked finishes before showing it.

Inputs are field-normalised Elo rank and qualifying position. The target is position among all race entries, trained only on classified finishers. Estimates are averages, not a unique predicted finishing order. Penalties, the circuit, weather, incidents and strategy aren't model inputs. Historical qualifying coverage is patchy; this is an exploratory backtest on corrected records, not proof of live forecasting accuracy.

The rating ledger

What changed in Elo?

These are actual rating changes. The expectation model above does not change Elo or fantasy scoring.

Largest Elo gain

Hadjar+46.2 Elo

Largest Elo loss

Russell−74.5 Elo

Largest grid-to-finish gain

Stroll+7 places

The bigger picture

Championship after this round

Top five in the stored standings. Points include sprint results where applicable.

  1. 1 Antonelli 131pts 0
  2. 2 Russell 88pts 0
  3. 3 Leclerc 79pts 0
  4. 4 Hamilton 70pts +1
  5. 5 Norris 58pts −1

Movement since round 4. A dash means the earlier standing is unavailable.

Explore the season →
Across the garage

Teammate results

Two-driver constructor entries from this race. A result comparison, not an adjustment for strategy or reliability.

Mercedes

AntonelliP1+27.0 Elo
RussellDNF−74.5 Elo

Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.

Q3 · Russell 0.068s faster

RB F1 Team

LawsonP7+31.3 Elo
LindbladDNS−39.0 Elo

Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.

Q2 · Lindblad 0.349s faster

Williams

SainzP9+13.6 Elo
AlbonDNF−33.2 Elo

Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.

Q1 · Sainz 0.575s faster

McLaren

PiastriP11−20.5 Elo
NorrisDNF−61.8 Elo

Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.

Q3 · Norris 0.052s faster

Aston Martin

StrollP15+6.5 Elo
AlonsoDNF−31.1 Elo

Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.

Q1 · Alonso 0.999s faster

What this analysis can—and cannot—tell you

This debrief is calculated from stored results and rating snapshots. The experimental expectation model learns from earlier races only, using Elo rank and qualifying together; it never feeds back into Elo. It is not a separately reviewed race report.

Elo uses the result order, including retirements. It does not isolate driver skill from the car, reliability, penalties or strategy. Elo seed comparisons use pre-race ratings, never today's ratings. Equal ratings share the midpoint of their rank range (for example, tied first and second become seed 1.5).

Grid gains use numbered starting slots and classified finishes only. Zero or missing grid values are excluded; a position gained is not necessarily an overtake. Qualifying gaps use the latest segment both teammates have a valid time for, never Q1 against Q3.

Lap-by-lap pace, tyre stints, pit-stop execution and safety-car effects are not available in this report. Missing data is omitted, not inferred.

Read the Elo methodology →
22
Result Entries
2,172
Avg Elo
2,498
Highest Elo (Verstappen)
18
Non-finishes

Race

Sprint

Qualifying

# Driver Grid +/- Points Season Pts Season # Elo Change Elo
P1 🇮🇹 A.Antonelli 2 +1 +25 131 P1 +27.0 2,410
P2 🇬🇧 L.Hamilton 5 +3 +18 70 P4 +29.2 2,344
P3 🇳🇱 M.Verstappen 6 +3 +15 43 P7 +7.2 2,498
P4 🇲🇨 C.Leclerc 8 +4 +12 79 P3 +9.5 2,417
P5 🇫🇷 I.Hadjar 7 +2 +10 14 P11 +46.2 2,105
P6 🇦🇷 F.Colapinto 10 +4 +8 13 P12 +45.1 2,073
P7 🇳🇿 L.Lawson 12 +5 +6 16 P10 +31.3 2,128
P8 🇫🇷 P.Gasly 14 +6 +4 20 P8 +31.3 2,088
P9 🇪🇸 C.Sainz 15 +6 +2 6 P13 +13.6 2,169
P10 🇬🇧 O.Bearman 16 +6 +1 18 P9 +9.6 2,157
P11 🇦🇺 O.Piastri 4 -7 0 48 P6 -20.5 2,335
P12 🇩🇪 N.Hülkenberg 11 -1 0 0 P18 +12.9 2,057
P13 🇧🇷 G.Bortoleto 13 — 0 2 P15 +7.1 2,057
P14 🇫🇷 E.Ocon 17 +3 0 1 P16 -7.1 2,114
P15 🇨🇦 L.Stroll 22 +7 0 0 P21 +6.5 1,978
P16 🇫🇮 V.Bottas 21 +5 0 0 P19 +5.1 1,944
DNF 🇲🇽 S.Pérez 20 0 0 P20 -14.1 2,044
DNF 🇬🇧 L.Norris 3 0 58 P5 -61.8 2,355
DNF 🇬🇧 G.Russell 1 0 88 P2 -74.5 2,433
DNF 🇪🇸 F.Alonso 19 0 0 P22 -31.1 2,043
DNF 🇹🇭 A.Albon 18 0 1 P17 -33.2 2,018
DNS 🇬🇧 A.Lindblad 9 0 5 P14 -39.0 2,018
# Driver Grid +/- Points Time Elo
P1 🇬🇧 G.Russell 1 — +8 28:50.951 2,405
P2 🇬🇧 L.Norris 3 +1 +7 +1.272 2,417
P3 🇮🇹 A.Antonelli 2 -1 +6 +1.843 2,441
P4 🇦🇺 O.Piastri 4 — +5 +9.797 2,316
P5 🇲🇨 C.Leclerc 6 +1 +4 +9.929 2,308
P6 🇬🇧 L.Hamilton 5 -1 +3 +10.545 2,437
P7 🇳🇱 M.Verstappen 7 — +2 +15.935 2,335
P8 🇬🇧 A.Lindblad 9 +1 +1 +29.710 2,187
P9 🇦🇷 F.Colapinto 13 +4 0 +31.621 2,135
P10 🇪🇸 C.Sainz 10 — 0 +36.793 2,061
P11 🇳🇿 L.Lawson 18 +7 0 +1:01.344 2,216
P12 🇧🇷 G.Bortoleto 12 — 0 +1:01.814 2,161
P13 🇫🇷 E.Ocon 14 +1 0 +1:04.209 2,035
P14 🇲🇽 S.Pérez 16 +2 0 +1:10.402 1,955
P15 🇩🇪 N.Hülkenberg 11 -4 0 +1:12.158 2,099
P16 🇨🇦 L.Stroll 17 +1 0 +13.127 1,901
P17 🇫🇮 V.Bottas 21 +4 0 +17.861 1,862
P18 🇬🇧 O.Bearman 19 +1 0 +23.846 2,020
P19 🇹🇭 A.Albon 22 +3 0 +53.493 1,979
P20 🇫🇷 P.Gasly 20 — 0 +1:08.477 2,203
P21 🇫🇷 I.Hadjar 8 -13 0 +18.135 2,286
DNF 🇪🇸 F.Alonso 15 -7 0 Retired 2,002
Sprint results do not affect Elo ratings
# Driver Q1 Q2 Q3 Gap Elo
1 🇬🇧 G.Russell 1:13.953 1:13.079 1:12.578 1:12.578 2,405
2 🇮🇹 A.Antonelli 1:13.380 1:13.076 1:12.646 +0.068 2,441
3 🇬🇧 L.Norris 1:13.503 1:13.049 1:12.729 +0.151 2,417
4 🇦🇺 O.Piastri 1:13.559 1:13.285 1:12.781 +0.203 2,316
5 🇬🇧 L.Hamilton 1:13.767 1:13.041 1:12.868 +0.29 2,437
6 🇳🇱 M.Verstappen 1:14.067 1:13.479 1:12.907 +0.329 2,335
7 🇫🇷 I.Hadjar 1:13.654 1:12.975 1:12.935 +0.357 2,286
8 🇲🇨 C.Leclerc 1:13.825 1:13.496 1:12.976 +0.398 2,308
9 🇬🇧 A.Lindblad 1:13.895 1:13.548 1:13.280 +0.702 2,187
10 🇦🇷 F.Colapinto 1:14.466 1:13.857 1:13.697 +1.119 2,135
11 🇩🇪 N.Hülkenberg 1:14.562 1:13.886 — +1.308 2,099
12 🇳🇿 L.Lawson 1:14.346 1:13.897 — +1.319 2,216
13 🇧🇷 G.Bortoleto 1:14.775 1:14.071 — +1.493 2,161
14 🇫🇷 P.Gasly 1:14.698 1:14.187 — +1.609 2,203
15 🇪🇸 C.Sainz 1:14.276 1:14.273 — +1.695 2,061
16 🇬🇧 O.Bearman 1:14.449 1:14.416 — +1.838 2,020
17 🇫🇷 E.Ocon 1:14.845 — — +2.267 2,035
18 🇹🇭 A.Albon 1:14.851 — — +2.273 1,979
19 🇪🇸 F.Alonso 1:15.196 — — +2.618 2,002
20 🇲🇽 S.Pérez 1:15.429 — — +2.851 1,955
21 🇨🇦 L.Stroll 1:16.195 — — +3.617 1,901
22 🇫🇮 V.Bottas 1:16.272 — — +3.694 1,862
Data: Jolpica (Ergast) API

Elo Changes