Round 13 · 2025

Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps

Spa, Belgium · July 27, 2025 · Circuit History · Wikipedia

Kings of this circuit
L.Hamilton 5
The race, in perspective

Race debrief

What did we expect after qualifying—and who beat it?

R132025
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19 stored results 19/19 Elo snapshots 19/19 numbered grid slots 19/19 qualifying results
Elo × qualifying → race result

Did they beat the expectation?

A strong driver recovering from a poor qualifying position isn't automatically a surprise. This model estimates a finish from both inputs, then compares it with what happened.

Experimental · v1

Expected finish assumes a classified finish. DNFs stay in the full grid but receive no performance verdict. Qualifying is not the starting grid; grid differences are flagged, not silently substituted.

Fit on 629 earlier finishes across 38 races, 2015–2025. No results from this race enter its expectation.

18/19 entrants have an estimate. Missing Elo or qualifying stays visible below; a grid position is not used as a qualifying result.

Top 3

Beat the estimate
  1. Lewis Hamilton Ferrari · Elo #6 · Q16

    Expected P10.0 Finished P7

    +3.0places
  2. Gabriel Bortoleto Sauber · Elo #19 · Q10

    Expected P11.5 Finished P9

    +2.5places
  3. Liam Lawson RB F1 Team · Elo #17 · Q9

    Expected P10.5 Finished P8

    +2.5places

Flop 3

Below the estimate
  1. Carlos Sainz Williams · Elo #9 · Q15

    Expected P10.5 Finished P18

    −7.5places
  2. Esteban Ocon Haas F1 Team · Elo #12 · Q11

    Expected P9.7 Finished P15

    −5.3places
  3. Fernando Alonso Aston Martin · Elo #8 · Q19

    Expected P12.0 Finished P17

    −5.0places

18/19 entrants assessed. Up to three per side, ranked by expected minus actual finish. DNFs, missing estimates and gaps rounding to 0.0 are excluded. “Flop” means below the model's estimate—not poor driving. A ranked gap can still be inside the usual error range.

DriverPre-race EloQualifyingExpectedResultP1 ← position → P19vs expectedReading
O. PiastriMcLaren #12560 P2 P2.3P1–P6 P1 +1.3places In range
L. NorrisMcLaren #22535 P1 P2.2P1–P6 P2 +0.2places In range
C. LeclercFerrari #52417 P3 P4.0P1–P8 P3 +1.0places In range
M. VerstappenRed Bull #32490 P4 P3.8P1–P7 P4 −0.2places In range
G. RussellMercedes #42429 P6 P5.0P1–P9 P5 0.0places In range
A. AlbonWilliams #102095 P5 P6.5P3–P10 P6 +0.5places In range
L. HamiltonFerrari #62375 P16 Grid P18 P10.0P6–P14 P7 +3.0places In range
L. LawsonRB F1 Team #172027 P9 P10.5P7–P14 P8 +2.5places In range
G. BortoletoSauber #191971 P10 P11.5P8–P15 P9 +2.5places In range
P. GaslyAlpine F1 Team #112091 P13 P10.3P7–P14 P10 +0.3places In range
O. BearmanHaas F1 Team #142065 P12 P10.8P7–P14 P11 −0.2places In range
N. HülkenbergSauber #72172 P14 P9.5P6–P13 P12 −2.5places In range
Y. TsunodaRed Bull #152042 P7 P8.9P5–P13 P13 −4.1places In range
L. StrollAston Martin #162042 — —No error range P14 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
E. OconHaas F1 Team #122089 P11 P9.7P6–P13 P15 −5.3places Below range
A. AntonelliMercedes #132065 P18 Grid P19 P13.1P10–P17 P16 −2.9places In range
F. AlonsoAston Martin #82147 P19 Grid P20 P12.0P8–P16 P17 −5.0places Below range
C. SainzWilliams #92139 P15 Grid P17 P10.5P7–P14 P18 −7.5places Below range
F. ColapintoAlpine F1 Team #181991 P17 Grid P15 P14.3P11–P18 P19 −4.7places Below range
How useful is the model? See the historical check

Average absolute error on 629 classified finishes in 38 earlier races within the last ten years. Each race was held out and predicted using only older races; all three models use the same samples.

Elo + qualifying
2.13places
Qualifying only
2.33places
Elo only
2.56places

The range scales the 80th percentile of earlier held-out absolute errors to this field size, rounding outward. It is an empirical error guide, not a guaranteed 80% chance for a particular driver. We require at least five checked races and 100 checked finishes before showing it.

Inputs are field-normalised Elo rank and qualifying position. The target is position among all race entries, trained only on classified finishers. Estimates are averages, not a unique predicted finishing order. Penalties, the circuit, weather, incidents and strategy aren't model inputs. Historical qualifying coverage is patchy; this is an exploratory backtest on corrected records, not proof of live forecasting accuracy.

The rating ledger

What changed in Elo?

These are actual rating changes. The expectation model above does not change Elo or fantasy scoring.

Largest Elo gain

Albon+33.5 Elo

Largest Elo loss

Sainz−39.8 Elo

Largest grid-to-finish gain

Hamilton+11 places

The bigger picture

Championship after this round

Top five in the stored standings. Points include sprint results where applicable.

  1. 1 Piastri 266pts 0
  2. 2 Norris 250pts 0
  3. 3 Verstappen 185pts 0
  4. 4 Russell 157pts 0
  5. 5 Leclerc 139pts 0

Movement since round 12. A dash means the earlier standing is unavailable.

Explore the season →
Across the garage

Teammate results

Two-driver constructor entries from this race. A result comparison, not an adjustment for strategy or reliability.

McLaren

PiastriP1+14.2 Elo
NorrisP2+10.3 Elo

1 place apart at the finish.

Q3 · Norris 0.085s faster

Williams

AlbonP6+33.5 Elo
SainzP18−39.8 Elo

12 places apart at the finish.

Q2 · Albon 0.253s faster

What this analysis can—and cannot—tell you

This debrief is calculated from stored results and rating snapshots. The experimental expectation model learns from earlier races only, using Elo rank and qualifying together; it never feeds back into Elo. It is not a separately reviewed race report.

Elo uses the result order, including retirements. It does not isolate driver skill from the car, reliability, penalties or strategy. Elo seed comparisons use pre-race ratings, never today's ratings. Equal ratings share the midpoint of their rank range (for example, tied first and second become seed 1.5).

Grid gains use numbered starting slots and classified finishes only. Zero or missing grid values are excluded; a position gained is not necessarily an overtake. Qualifying gaps use the latest segment both teammates have a valid time for, never Q1 against Q3.

Lap-by-lap pace, tyre stints, pit-stop execution and safety-car effects are not available in this report. Missing data is omitted, not inferred.

Read the Elo methodology →
19
Result Entries
2,197
Avg Elo
2,574
Highest Elo (Piastri)

Race

Qualifying

# Driver Grid +/- Points Season Pts Season # Elo Change Elo
P1 🇦🇺 O.Piastri 2 +1 +25 266 P1 +14.2 2,574
P2 🇬🇧 L.Norris 1 -1 +18 250 P2 +10.3 2,545
P3 🇲🇨 C.Leclerc 3 — +15 139 P5 +14.4 2,432
P4 🇳🇱 M.Verstappen 4 — +12 185 P3 +2.5 2,492
P5 🇬🇧 G.Russell 6 +1 +10 157 P4 +2.0 2,431
P6 🇹🇭 A.Albon 5 -1 +8 54 P8 +33.5 2,129
P7 🇬🇧 L.Hamilton 18 +11 +6 109 P6 -4.2 2,370
P8 🇳🇿 L.Lawson 9 +1 +4 16 P14 +30.3 2,057
P9 🇧🇷 G.Bortoleto 10 +1 +2 6 P19 +30.8 2,002
P10 🇫🇷 P.Gasly 13 +3 +1 20 P12 +11.3 2,103
P11 🇬🇧 O.Bearman 12 +1 0 8 P18 +8.9 2,073
P12 🇩🇪 N.Hülkenberg 14 +2 0 37 P9 -9.8 2,162
P13 🇯🇵 Y.Tsunoda 7 -6 0 10 P17 +0.2 2,043
P14 🇨🇦 L.Stroll 16 +2 0 20 P13 -5.4 2,037
P15 🇫🇷 E.Ocon 11 -4 0 27 P10 -16.7 2,072
P16 🇮🇹 A.Antonelli 19 +3 0 63 P7 -19.4 2,045
P17 🇪🇸 F.Alonso 20 +3 0 16 P15 -35.1 2,112
P18 🇪🇸 C.Sainz 17 -1 0 16 P16 -39.8 2,099
P19 🇦🇷 F.Colapinto 15 -4 0 0 P20 -27.9 1,963
# Driver Q1 Q2 Q3 Gap Elo
1 🇬🇧 L.Norris 1:41.010 1:40.715 1:40.562 1:40.562 2,417
2 🇦🇺 O.Piastri 1:41.201 1:40.626 1:40.647 +0.085 2,316
3 🇲🇨 C.Leclerc 1:41.635 1:41.084 1:40.900 +0.338 2,308
4 🇳🇱 M.Verstappen 1:41.334 1:40.951 1:40.903 +0.341 2,335
5 🇹🇭 A.Albon 1:41.772 1:41.505 1:41.201 +0.639 1,979
6 🇬🇧 G.Russell 1:41.784 1:41.254 1:41.260 +0.698 2,405
7 🇯🇵 Y.Tsunoda 1:41.840 1:41.245 1:41.284 +0.722 2,130
8 🇫🇷 I.Hadjar 1:41.572 1:41.281 1:41.310 +0.748 2,286
9 🇳🇿 L.Lawson 1:41.748 1:41.297 1:41.328 +0.766 2,216
10 🇧🇷 G.Bortoleto 1:41.908 1:41.336 1:42.387 +1.825 2,161
11 🇫🇷 E.Ocon 1:41.884 1:41.525 — +0.963 2,035
12 🇬🇧 O.Bearman 1:41.617 1:41.617 — +1.055 2,020
13 🇫🇷 P.Gasly 1:41.800 1:41.633 — +1.071 2,203
14 🇩🇪 N.Hülkenberg 1:41.844 1:41.707 — +1.145 2,099
15 🇪🇸 C.Sainz 1:41.691 1:41.758 — +1.196 2,061
16 🇬🇧 L.Hamilton 1:41.939 — — +1.377 2,437
17 🇦🇷 F.Colapinto 1:42.022 — — +1.46 2,135
18 🇮🇹 A.Antonelli 1:42.139 — — +1.577 2,441
19 🇪🇸 F.Alonso 1:42.385 — — +1.823 2,002
20 🇨🇦 L.Stroll 1:42.502 — — +1.94 1,901
Data: Jolpica (Ergast) API

Elo Changes