Round 5 · 2016

Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya

Montmeló, Spain · May 15, 2016 · Circuit History · Wikipedia

Kings of this circuit
L.Hamilton 7
The race, in perspective

Race debrief

What did we expect after qualifying—and who beat it?

R052016
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22 stored results 22/22 Elo snapshots 22/22 numbered grid slots 22/22 qualifying results
Elo × qualifying → race result

Did they beat the expectation?

A strong driver recovering from a poor qualifying position isn't automatically a surprise. This model estimates a finish from both inputs, then compares it with what happened.

Experimental · v1

Expected finish assumes a classified finish. DNFs stay in the full grid but receive no performance verdict. Qualifying is not the starting grid; grid differences are flagged, not silently substituted.

Fit on 595 earlier finishes across 35 races, 2006–2015. No results from this race enter its expectation.

Top 3

Beat the estimate
  1. Max Verstappen Red Bull · Elo #11 · Q4

    Expected P6.2 Finished P1

    +5.2places
  2. Esteban Gutiérrez Haas F1 Team · Elo #21 · Q16

    Expected P14.3 Finished P11

    +3.3places
  3. Felipe Massa Williams · Elo #7 · Q18

    Expected P11.3 Finished P8

    +3.3places

Flop 3

Below the estimate
  1. Kevin Magnussen Renault · Elo #12 · Q15

    Expected P11.3 Finished P14

    −2.7places
  2. Daniil Kvyat Toro Rosso · Elo #8 · Q13

    Expected P9.3 Finished P10

    −0.7places
  3. Pascal Wehrlein Manor Marussia · Elo #19 · Q21

    Expected P15.9 Finished P16

    −0.1places

17/22 entrants assessed. Up to three per side, ranked by expected minus actual finish. DNFs, missing estimates and gaps rounding to 0.0 are excluded. “Flop” means below the model's estimate—not poor driving. A ranked gap can still be inside the usual error range.

DriverPre-race EloQualifyingExpectedResultP1 ← position → P22vs expectedReading
M. VerstappenRed Bull #112177 P4 P6.2P2–P11 P1 +5.2places Above range
K. RäikkönenFerrari #32327 P5 P4.4P1–P9 P2 +2.4places In range
S. VettelFerrari #42318 P6 P5.2P1–P10 P3 +2.2places In range
D. RicciardoRed Bull #52311 P3 P4.1P1–P8 P4 +0.1places In range
V. BottasWilliams #62299 P7 P6.2P2–P11 P5 +1.2places In range
C. SainzToro Rosso #132113 P8 P8.5P4–P13 P6 +2.5places In range
S. PérezForce India #92222 P9 P7.9P4–P12 P7 +0.9places In range
F. MassaWilliams #72280 P18 P11.3P7–P16 P8 +3.3places In range
J. ButtonMcLaren #152085 P12 P10.9P6–P15 P9 +1.9places In range
D. KvyatToro Rosso #82227 P13 P9.3P5–P14 P10 −0.7places In range
E. GutiérrezHaas F1 Team #211958 P16 P14.3P10–P19 P11 +3.3places In range
M. EricssonSauber #172041 P19 P14.5P10–P19 P12 +2.5places In range
J. PalmerRenault #201977 P17 P14.4P10–P19 P13 +1.4places In range
K. MagnussenRenault #122168 P15 P11.3P7–P16 P14 −2.7places In range
F. NasrSauber #182027 P20 P15.2P11–P20 P15 +0.2places In range
P. WehrleinManor Marussia #191989 P21 P15.9P12–P20 P16 −0.1places In range
R. HaryantoManor Marussia #221920 P22 P17.2P13–P22 P17 +0.2places In range
R. GrosjeanHaas F1 Team #102188 P14 P10.3P6–P15 DNFEngine — Not assessedDNF: Engine
F. AlonsoMcLaren #162058 P10 P10.2P6–P15 DNFEngine — Not assessedDNF: Engine
N. HülkenbergForce India #142101 P11 P10.1P6–P14 DNFEngine — Not assessedDNF: Engine
L. HamiltonMercedes #12598 P1 P2.1P1–P6 DNFCollision — Not assessedDNF: Collision
N. RosbergMercedes #22574 P2 P2.8P1–P7 DNFCollision — Not assessedDNF: Collision
How useful is the model? See the historical check

Average absolute error on 595 classified finishes in 35 earlier races within the last ten years. Each race was held out and predicted using only older races; all three models use the same samples.

Elo + qualifying
2.37places
Qualifying only
2.59places
Elo only
2.90places

The range scales the 80th percentile of earlier held-out absolute errors to this field size, rounding outward. It is an empirical error guide, not a guaranteed 80% chance for a particular driver. We require at least five checked races and 100 checked finishes before showing it.

Inputs are field-normalised Elo rank and qualifying position. The target is position among all race entries, trained only on classified finishers. Estimates are averages, not a unique predicted finishing order. Penalties, the circuit, weather, incidents and strategy aren't model inputs. Historical qualifying coverage is patchy; this is an exploratory backtest on corrected records, not proof of live forecasting accuracy.

The rating ledger

What changed in Elo?

These are actual rating changes. The expectation model above does not change Elo or fantasy scoring.

Largest Elo loss

Rosberg−111.5 Elo

Largest grid-to-finish gain

Massa+10 places

The bigger picture

Championship after this round

Top five in the stored standings. Points include sprint results where applicable.

  1. 1 Rosberg 100pts 0
  2. 2 Räikkönen 61pts +1
  3. 3 Hamilton 57pts −1
  4. 4 Vettel 48pts +1
  5. 5 Ricciardo 48pts −1

Movement since round 4. A dash means the earlier standing is unavailable.

Explore the season →
Across the garage

Teammate results

Two-driver constructor entries from this race. A result comparison, not an adjustment for strategy or reliability.

Williams

BottasP5+19.8 Elo
MassaP8+4.6 Elo

3 places apart at the finish.

Q1 · Bottas 0.690s faster

Toro Rosso

SainzP6+42.2 Elo
KvyatP10+0.5 Elo

4 places apart at the finish.

Q2 · Sainz 0.368s faster

McLaren

ButtonP9+28.6 Elo
AlonsoDNF−27.1 Elo

Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.

Q2 · Alonso 0.156s faster

Sauber

EricssonP12+17.2 Elo
NasrP15+1.3 Elo

3 places apart at the finish.

Q1 · Ericsson 0.377s faster

Renault

PalmerP13+20.2 Elo
MagnussenP14−14.4 Elo

1 place apart at the finish.

Q1 · Magnussen 0.234s faster

Mercedes

HamiltonDNF−107.2 Elo
RosbergDNF−111.5 Elo

Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.

Q3 · Hamilton 0.280s faster

What this analysis can—and cannot—tell you

This debrief is calculated from stored results and rating snapshots. The experimental expectation model learns from earlier races only, using Elo rank and qualifying together; it never feeds back into Elo. It is not a separately reviewed race report.

Elo uses the result order, including retirements. It does not isolate driver skill from the car, reliability, penalties or strategy. Elo seed comparisons use pre-race ratings, never today's ratings. Equal ratings share the midpoint of their rank range (for example, tied first and second become seed 1.5).

Grid gains use numbered starting slots and classified finishes only. Zero or missing grid values are excluded; a position gained is not necessarily an overtake. Qualifying gaps use the latest segment both teammates have a valid time for, never Q1 against Q3.

Lap-by-lap pace, tyre stints, pit-stop execution and safety-car effects are not available in this report. Missing data is omitted, not inferred.

Read the Elo methodology →
22
Result Entries
2,180
Avg Elo
2,491
Highest Elo (Hamilton)
5
Non-finishes

Race

Qualifying

# Driver Grid +/- Points Season Pts Season # Elo Change Elo
P1 🇳🇱 M.Verstappen 4 +3 +25 38 P6 +62.0 2,239
P2 🇫🇮 K.Räikkönen 5 +3 +18 61 P2 +33.8 2,361
P3 🇩🇪 S.Vettel 6 +3 +15 48 P4 +29.1 2,347
P4 🇦🇺 D.Ricciardo 3 -1 +12 48 P5 +24.1 2,335
P5 🇫🇮 V.Bottas 7 +2 +10 29 P8 +19.8 2,319
P6 🇪🇸 C.Sainz 8 +2 +8 12 P11 +42.2 2,155
P7 🇲🇽 S.Pérez 9 +2 +6 8 P13 +19.2 2,241
P8 🇧🇷 F.Massa 18 +10 +4 36 P7 +4.6 2,284
P9 🇬🇧 J.Button 12 +3 +2 3 P16 +28.6 2,113
P10 🇷🇺 D.Kvyat 13 +3 +1 22 P9 +0.5 2,227
P11 🇲🇽 E.Gutiérrez 16 +5 0 0 P19 +34.6 1,993
P12 🇸🇪 M.Ericsson 19 +7 0 0 P20 +17.2 2,058
P13 🇬🇧 J.Palmer 17 +4 0 0 P18 +20.2 1,997
P14 🇩🇰 K.Magnussen 15 +1 0 6 P14 -14.4 2,154
P15 🇧🇷 F.Nasr 20 +5 0 0 P22 +1.3 2,028
P16 🇩🇪 P.Wehrlein 21 +5 0 0 P21 +0.7 1,990
P17 🇮🇩 R.Haryanto 22 +5 0 0 P23 +3.4 1,923
DNF 🇫🇷 R.Grosjean 14 0 22 P10 -41.4 2,147
DNF 🇪🇸 F.Alonso 10 0 8 P12 -27.1 2,030
DNF 🇩🇪 N.Hülkenberg 11 0 6 P15 -39.7 2,061
DNF 🇬🇧 L.Hamilton 1 0 57 P3 -107.2 2,491
DNF 🇩🇪 N.Rosberg 2 0 100 P1 -111.5 2,462
# Driver Q1 Q2 Q3 Gap Elo
1 🇬🇧 L.Hamilton 1:23.214 1:22.159 1:22.000 1:22.000 2,437
2 🇩🇪 N.Rosberg 1:23.002 1:22.759 1:22.280 +0.28 2,617
3 🇦🇺 D.Ricciardo 1:23.749 1:23.585 1:22.680 +0.68 2,055
4 🇳🇱 M.Verstappen 1:23.578 1:23.178 1:23.087 +1.087 2,335
5 🇫🇮 K.Räikkönen 1:23.796 1:23.504 1:23.113 +1.113 2,029
6 🇩🇪 S.Vettel 1:24.124 1:23.688 1:23.334 +1.334 2,156
7 🇫🇮 V.Bottas 1:24.251 1:24.023 1:23.522 +1.522 1,862
8 🇪🇸 C.Sainz 1:24.496 1:24.077 1:23.643 +1.643 2,061
9 🇲🇽 S.Pérez 1:24.698 1:24.003 1:23.782 +1.782 1,955
10 🇪🇸 F.Alonso 1:24.578 1:24.192 1:23.981 +1.981 2,002
11 🇩🇪 N.Hülkenberg 1:24.463 1:24.203 — +2.203 2,099
12 🇬🇧 J.Button 1:24.583 1:24.348 — +2.348 2,016
13 🇷🇺 D.Kvyat 1:24.696 1:24.445 — +2.445 2,171
14 🇫🇷 R.Grosjean 1:24.716 1:24.480 — +2.48 1,931
15 🇩🇰 K.Magnussen 1:24.669 1:24.625 — +2.625 2,056
16 🇲🇽 E.Gutiérrez 1:24.406 1:24.778 — +2.778 2,002
17 🇬🇧 J.Palmer 1:24.903 — — +2.903 2,023
18 🇧🇷 F.Massa 1:24.941 — — +2.941 2,196
19 🇸🇪 M.Ericsson 1:25.202 — — +3.202 2,009
20 🇧🇷 F.Nasr 1:25.579 — — +3.579 2,014
21 🇩🇪 P.Wehrlein 1:25.745 — — +3.745 1,956
22 🇮🇩 R.Haryanto 1:25.939 — — +3.939 1,891
Data: Jolpica (Ergast) API

Elo Changes