Round 18 · 2017

Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez

Mexico City, Mexico · October 29, 2017 · Circuit History · Wikipedia

Kings of this circuit
M.Verstappen 5
The race, in perspective

Race debrief

What did we expect after qualifying—and who beat it?

R182017
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20 stored results 20/20 Elo snapshots 20/20 numbered grid slots 0/20 qualifying results
Elo × qualifying → race result

Did they beat the expectation?

A strong driver recovering from a poor qualifying position isn't automatically a surprise. This model estimates a finish from both inputs, then compares it with what happened.

Experimental · v1

Expected finish assumes a classified finish. DNFs stay in the full grid but receive no performance verdict. Qualifying is not the starting grid; grid differences are flagged, not silently substituted.

Fit on 612 earlier finishes across 36 races, 2008–2017. No results from this race enter its expectation.

0/20 entrants have an estimate. Missing Elo or qualifying stays visible below; a grid position is not used as a qualifying result.

Top 3

Beat the estimate

No comparable estimates available for this race yet.

Flop 3

Below the estimate

No comparable estimates available for this race yet.

0/20 entrants assessed. Up to three per side, ranked by expected minus actual finish. DNFs, missing estimates and gaps rounding to 0.0 are excluded. “Flop” means below the model's estimate—not poor driving. A ranked gap can still be inside the usual error range.

DriverPre-race EloQualifyingExpectedResultP1 ← position → P20vs expectedReading
M. VerstappenRed Bull #82251 — —No error range P1 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
V. BottasMercedes #22462 — —No error range P2 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
K. RäikkönenFerrari #52274 — —No error range P3 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
S. VettelFerrari #32388 — —No error range P4 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
E. OconForce India #72263 — —No error range P5 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
L. StrollWilliams #102123 — —No error range P6 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
S. PérezForce India #62269 — —No error range P7 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
K. MagnussenHaas F1 Team #142069 — —No error range P8 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
L. HamiltonMercedes #12649 — —No error range P9 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
F. AlonsoMcLaren #182005 — —No error range P10 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
F. MassaWilliams #92184 — —No error range P11 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
S. VandoorneMcLaren #132081 — —No error range P12 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
P. GaslyToro Rosso #162010 — —No error range P13 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
P. WehrleinSauber #201927 — —No error range P14 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
R. GrosjeanHaas F1 Team #112102 — —No error range P15 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
C. SainzRenault #122086 — —No error range DNFEngine — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
M. EricssonSauber #191929 — —No error range DNFEngine — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
B. HartleyToro Rosso #172008 — —No error range DNFEngine — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
N. HülkenbergRenault #152011 — —No error range DNFElectrical — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
D. RicciardoRed Bull #42353 — —No error range DNFEngine — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
How useful is the model? See the historical check

Average absolute error on 612 classified finishes in 36 earlier races within the last ten years. Each race was held out and predicted using only older races; all three models use the same samples.

Elo + qualifying
2.24places
Qualifying only
2.44places
Elo only
2.79places

The range scales the 80th percentile of earlier held-out absolute errors to this field size, rounding outward. It is an empirical error guide, not a guaranteed 80% chance for a particular driver. We require at least five checked races and 100 checked finishes before showing it.

Inputs are field-normalised Elo rank and qualifying position. The target is position among all race entries, trained only on classified finishers. Estimates are averages, not a unique predicted finishing order. Penalties, the circuit, weather, incidents and strategy aren't model inputs. Historical qualifying coverage is patchy; this is an exploratory backtest on corrected records, not proof of live forecasting accuracy.

The rating ledger

What changed in Elo?

These are actual rating changes. The expectation model above does not change Elo or fantasy scoring.

Largest grid-to-finish gain

Alonso+8 places

The bigger picture

Championship after this round

Top five in the stored standings. Points include sprint results where applicable.

  1. 1 Hamilton 333pts 0
  2. 2 Vettel 277pts 0
  3. 3 Bottas 262pts 0
  4. 4 Ricciardo 192pts 0
  5. 5 Räikkönen 178pts 0

Movement since round 17. A dash means the earlier standing is unavailable.

Explore the season →
Across the garage

Teammate results

Two-driver constructor entries from this race. A result comparison, not an adjustment for strategy or reliability.

What this analysis can—and cannot—tell you

This debrief is calculated from stored results and rating snapshots. The experimental expectation model learns from earlier races only, using Elo rank and qualifying together; it never feeds back into Elo. It is not a separately reviewed race report.

Elo uses the result order, including retirements. It does not isolate driver skill from the car, reliability, penalties or strategy. Elo seed comparisons use pre-race ratings, never today's ratings. Equal ratings share the midpoint of their rank range (for example, tied first and second become seed 1.5).

Grid gains use numbered starting slots and classified finishes only. Zero or missing grid values are excluded; a position gained is not necessarily an overtake. Qualifying gaps use the latest segment both teammates have a valid time for, never Q1 against Q3.

Lap-by-lap pace, tyre stints, pit-stop execution and safety-car effects are not available in this report. Missing data is omitted, not inferred.

Read the Elo methodology →
20
Result Entries
2,172
Avg Elo
2,606
Highest Elo (Hamilton)
5
Non-finishes

Race

Qualifying

# Driver Grid +/- Points Season Pts Season # Elo Change Elo
P1 🇳🇱 M.Verstappen 2 +1 +25 148 P6 +49.4 2,301
P2 🇫🇮 V.Bottas 4 +2 +18 262 P3 +16.7 2,478
P3 🇫🇮 K.Räikkönen 5 +2 +15 178 P5 +32.9 2,307
P4 🇩🇪 S.Vettel 1 -3 +12 277 P2 +11.4 2,400
P5 🇫🇷 E.Ocon 6 +1 +10 83 P8 +21.3 2,284
P6 🇨🇦 L.Stroll 11 +5 +8 40 P10 +35.9 2,159
P7 🇲🇽 S.Pérez 9 +2 +6 92 P7 +7.3 2,276
P8 🇩🇰 K.Magnussen 14 +6 +4 19 P14 +30.9 2,100
P9 🇬🇧 L.Hamilton 3 -6 +2 333 P1 -43.8 2,606
P10 🇪🇸 F.Alonso 18 +8 +1 11 P16 +27.1 2,032
P11 🇧🇷 F.Massa 10 -1 0 36 P11 -6.5 2,177
P12 🇧🇪 S.Vandoorne 19 +7 0 13 P15 +2.7 2,083
P13 🇫🇷 P.Gasly 20 +7 0 0 P22 +6.6 2,016
P14 🇩🇪 P.Wehrlein 13 -1 0 5 P18 +11.1 1,938
P15 🇫🇷 R.Grosjean 15 — 0 28 P13 -20.3 2,082
DNF 🇪🇸 C.Sainz 8 0 54 P9 -24.4 2,061
DNF 🇸🇪 M.Ericsson 12 0 0 P20 -9.0 1,920
DNF 🇳🇿 B.Hartley 17 0 0 P23 -26.2 1,982
DNF 🇩🇪 N.Hülkenberg 7 0 34 P12 -33.2 1,978
DNF 🇦🇺 D.Ricciardo 16 0 192 P4 -90.0 2,263

Qualifying results are not available for this race.

Elo Changes