Circuit of the Americas

Average absolute error on 590 classified finishes in 35 earlier races within the last ten years. Each race was held out and predicted using only older races; all three models use the same samples.

Elo + qualifying

2.38places

Qualifying only

2.59places

Elo only

2.89places

The range scales the 80th percentile of earlier held-out absolute errors to this field size, rounding outward. It is an empirical error guide, not a guaranteed 80% chance for a particular driver. We require at least five checked races and 100 checked finishes before showing it.

Inputs are field-normalised Elo rank and qualifying position. The target is position among all race entries, trained only on classified finishers. Estimates are averages, not a unique predicted finishing order. Penalties, the circuit, weather, incidents and strategy aren't model inputs. Historical qualifying coverage is patchy; this is an exploratory backtest on corrected records, not proof of live forecasting accuracy.