What did we expect after qualifying—and who beat it?
A strong driver recovering from a poor qualifying position isn't automatically a surprise. This model estimates a finish from both inputs, then compares it with what happened.
Expected finish assumes a classified finish. DNFs stay in the full grid but receive no performance verdict. Qualifying is not the starting grid; grid differences are flagged, not silently substituted.
Fit on 590 earlier finishes across 35 races, 2006–2015. No results from this race enter its expectation.
Expected P11.7 Finished P8
Expected P6.3 Finished P4
Expected P7.5 Finished P6
Expected P12.0 Finished P16
Expected P7.2 Finished P11
Expected P14.3 Finished P18
18/20 entrants assessed. Up to three per side, ranked by expected minus actual finish. DNFs, missing estimates and gaps rounding to 0.0 are excluded. “Flop” means below the model's estimate—not poor driving. A ranked gap can still be inside the usual error range.
| Driver | Pre-race Elo | Qualifying | Expected | Result | P1 ← position → P20 | vs expected | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. RosbergMercedes | #22454 | P1 | P2.3P1–P6 | P1 | +1.3places | In range | |
| L. HamiltonMercedes | #12599 | P2 | P2.5P1–P6 | P2 | +0.5places | In range | |
| S. VettelFerrari | #32438 | P3 | P3.5P1–P7 | P3 | +0.5places | In range | |
| K. RäikkönenFerrari | #102189 | P5 Grid P4 | P6.3P2–P10 | P4 | +2.3places | In range | |
| V. BottasWilliams | #42287 | P4 Grid P7 | P4.2P1–P8 | P5 | −0.8places | In range | |
| N. HülkenbergForce India | #132101 | P6 Grid P5 | P7.5P4–P11 | P6 | +1.5places | In range | |
| D. KvyatRed Bull | #62276 | P7 Grid P6 | P6.0P2–P10 | P7 | −1.0places | In range | |
| R. GrosjeanLotus F1 | #142090 | P15 Grid P14 | P11.7P8–P16 | P8 | +3.7places | In range | |
| M. VerstappenToro Rosso | #92220 | P10 Grid P9 | P8.1P4–P12 | P9 | −0.9places | In range | |
| P. MaldonadoLotus F1 | #112108 | P16 Grid P15 | P11.3P7–P15 | P10 | +1.3places | In range | |
| D. RicciardoRed Bull | #72231 | P9 Grid P19 | P7.2P3–P11 | P11 | −3.8places | In range | |
| S. PérezForce India | #52285 | P13 Grid P11 | P8.3P4–P12 | P12 | −3.7places | In range | |
| F. NasrSauber | #162086 | P11 Grid P13 | P10.5P7–P14 | P13 | −2.5places | In range | |
| J. ButtonMcLaren | #152089 | P17 Grid P16 | P12.8P9–P17 | P14 | −1.2places | In range | |
| F. AlonsoMcLaren | #182027 | P20 | P14.9P11–P19 | P15 | −0.1places | In range | |
| M. EricssonSauber | #172048 | P14 Grid P12 | P12.0P8–P16 | P16 | −4.0places | In range | |
| W. StevensManor Marussia | #201906 | P19 Grid P18 | P15.0P11–P19 | P17 | −2.0places | In range | |
| A. RossiManor Marussia | #191998 | P18 Grid P17 | P14.3P10–P18 | P18 | −3.7places | In range | |
| C. SainzToro Rosso | #122102 | P12 Grid P10 | P9.8P6–P14 | DNFRetired | — | Not assessedDNF: Retired | |
| F. MassaWilliams | #82228 | P8 | P7.0P3–P11 | DSQExcluded | — | Not assessedDSQ: Excluded |
Average absolute error on 590 classified finishes in 35 earlier races within the last ten years. Each race was held out and predicted using only older races; all three models use the same samples.
The range scales the 80th percentile of earlier held-out absolute errors to this field size, rounding outward. It is an empirical error guide, not a guaranteed 80% chance for a particular driver. We require at least five checked races and 100 checked finishes before showing it.
Inputs are field-normalised Elo rank and qualifying position. The target is position among all race entries, trained only on classified finishers. Estimates are averages, not a unique predicted finishing order. Penalties, the circuit, weather, incidents and strategy aren't model inputs. Historical qualifying coverage is patchy; this is an exploratory backtest on corrected records, not proof of live forecasting accuracy.
These are actual rating changes. The expectation model above does not change Elo or fantasy scoring.
Top five in the stored standings. Points include sprint results where applicable.
Movement since round 17. A dash means the earlier standing is unavailable.
Explore the season →Two-driver constructor entries from this race. A result comparison, not an adjustment for strategy or reliability.
1 place apart at the finish.
Q3 · Rosberg 0.078s faster
1 place apart at the finish.
Q3 · Vettel 0.340s faster
Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.
Q3 · Bottas 0.330s faster
6 places apart at the finish.
Q2 · Hülkenberg 0.662s faster
4 places apart at the finish.
Q3 · Kvyat 0.095s faster
2 places apart at the finish.
Q1 · Grosjean 0.329s faster
Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.
Q2 · Verstappen 0.333s faster
3 places apart at the finish.
Q2 · Nasr 0.244s faster
1 place apart at the finish.
1 place apart at the finish.
Q1 · Rossi 0.132s faster
This debrief is calculated from stored results and rating snapshots. The experimental expectation model learns from earlier races only, using Elo rank and qualifying together; it never feeds back into Elo. It is not a separately reviewed race report.
Elo uses the result order, including retirements. It does not isolate driver skill from the car, reliability, penalties or strategy. Elo seed comparisons use pre-race ratings, never today's ratings. Equal ratings share the midpoint of their rank range (for example, tied first and second become seed 1.5).
Grid gains use numbered starting slots and classified finishes only. Zero or missing grid values are excluded; a position gained is not necessarily an overtake. Qualifying gaps use the latest segment both teammates have a valid time for, never Q1 against Q3.
Lap-by-lap pace, tyre stints, pit-stop execution and safety-car effects are not available in this report. Missing data is omitted, not inferred.
Read the Elo methodology →| # | Driver | Grid | +/- | Points | Season Pts | Season # | Elo Change | Elo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | 🇩🇪 |
|
N.Rosberg | 1 | — | +25 | 297 | P2 | +26.2 | 2,480 |
| P2 | 🇬🇧 |
|
L.Hamilton | 2 | — | +18 | 363 | P1 | +5.9 | 2,605 |
| P3 | 🇩🇪 |
|
S.Vettel | 3 | — | +15 | 266 | P3 | +14.1 | 2,452 |
| P4 | 🇫🇮 |
|
K.Räikkönen | 4 | — | +12 | 135 | P5 | +43.9 | 2,233 |
| P5 | 🇫🇮 |
|
V.Bottas | 7 | +2 | +10 | 136 | P4 | +21.0 | 2,308 |
| P6 | 🇩🇪 | Force India | N.Hülkenberg | 5 | -1 | +8 | 52 | P10 | +44.9 | 2,146 |
| P7 | 🇷🇺 |
|
D.Kvyat | 6 | -1 | +6 | 94 | P7 | +8.8 | 2,285 |
| P8 | 🇫🇷 | Lotus F1 | R.Grosjean | 14 | +6 | +4 | 49 | P11 | +32.7 | 2,123 |
| P9 | 🇳🇱 | Toro Rosso | M.Verstappen | 9 | — | +2 | 49 | P12 | +4.0 | 2,224 |
| P10 | 🇻🇪 | Lotus F1 | P.Maldonado | 15 | +5 | +1 | 27 | P14 | +15.8 | 2,124 |
| P11 | 🇦🇺 |
|
D.Ricciardo | 19 | +8 | 0 | 84 | P8 | -11.8 | 2,219 |
| P12 | 🇲🇽 | Force India | S.Pérez | 11 | -1 | 0 | 68 | P9 | -27.4 | 2,257 |
| P13 | 🇧🇷 |
|
F.Nasr | 13 | — | 0 | 27 | P13 | -1.5 | 2,085 |
| P14 | 🇬🇧 |
|
J.Button | 16 | +2 | 0 | 16 | P16 | -8.8 | 2,080 |
| P15 | 🇪🇸 |
|
F.Alonso | 20 | +5 | 0 | 11 | P17 | -6.0 | 2,021 |
| P16 | 🇸🇪 |
|
M.Ericsson | 12 | -4 | 0 | 9 | P18 | -16.2 | 2,032 |
| P17 | 🇬🇧 | Manor Marussia | W.Stevens | 18 | +1 | 0 | 0 | P21 | -3.4 | 1,902 |
| P18 | 🇺🇸 | Manor Marussia | A.Rossi | 17 | -1 | 0 | 0 | P20 | -22.6 | 1,976 |
| DNF | 🇪🇸 | Toro Rosso | C.Sainz | 10 | 0 | 18 | P15 | -45.7 | 2,056 | |
| DSQ | 🇧🇷 |
|
F.Massa | 8 | 0 | 117 | P6 | -73.9 | 2,154 |