Round 4 · 2013

Bahrain International Circuit

Sakhir, Bahrain · April 21, 2013 · Circuit History · Wikipedia

Kings of this circuit
L.Hamilton 5
The race, in perspective

Race debrief

What did we expect after qualifying—and who beat it?

R042013
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22 stored results 22/22 Elo snapshots 22/22 numbered grid slots 22/22 qualifying results
Elo × qualifying → race result

Did they beat the expectation?

A strong driver recovering from a poor qualifying position isn't automatically a surprise. This model estimates a finish from both inputs, then compares it with what happened.

Experimental · v1

Expected finish assumes a classified finish. DNFs stay in the full grid but receive no performance verdict. Qualifying is not the starting grid; grid differences are flagged, not silently substituted.

Fit on 545 earlier finishes across 34 races, 2003–2012. No results from this race enter its expectation.

Top 3

Beat the estimate
  1. Romain Grosjean Lotus F1 · Elo #8 · Q11

    Expected P8.3 Finished P3

    +5.3places
  2. Sergio Pérez McLaren · Elo #14 · Q12

    Expected P10.2 Finished P6

    +4.2places
  3. Kimi Räikkönen Lotus F1 · Elo #2 · Q9

    Expected P5.9 Finished P2

    +3.9places

Flop 3

Below the estimate
  1. Felipe Massa Ferrari · Elo #3 · Q6

    Expected P4.9 Finished P15

    −10.1places
  2. Daniel Ricciardo Toro Rosso · Elo #11 · Q13

    Expected P9.9 Finished P16

    −6.1places
  3. Giedo van der Garde Caterham · Elo #21 · Q21

    Expected P15.8 Finished P21

    −5.2places

21/22 entrants assessed. Up to three per side, ranked by expected minus actual finish. DNFs, missing estimates and gaps rounding to 0.0 are excluded. “Flop” means below the model's estimate—not poor driving. A ranked gap can still be inside the usual error range.

DriverPre-race EloQualifyingExpectedResultP1 ← position → P22vs expectedReading
S. VettelRed Bull #12513 P2 P2.7P1–P7 P1 +1.7places In range
K. RäikkönenLotus F1 #22451 P9 Grid P8 P5.9P1–P11 P2 +3.9places In range
R. GrosjeanLotus F1 #82176 P11 P8.3P4–P13 P3 +5.3places Above range
P. di RestaForce India #102135 P7 Grid P5 P7.1P2–P12 P4 +3.1places In range
L. HamiltonMercedes #52304 P4 Grid P9 P4.6P1–P9 P5 −0.4places In range
S. PérezMcLaren #142101 P12 P10.2P6–P15 P6 +4.2places In range
M. WebberRed Bull #72231 P5 Grid P7 P5.5P1–P10 P7 −1.5places In range
F. AlonsoFerrari #42397 P3 P3.9P1–P9 P8 −4.1places In range
N. RosbergMercedes #152068 P1 P5.8P1–P10 P9 −3.2places In range
J. ButtonMcLaren #62297 P10 P7.4P3–P12 P10 −2.6places In range
P. MaldonadoWilliams #182013 P17 P13.3P9–P18 P11 +2.3places In range
N. HülkenbergSauber #92170 P14 P9.8P5–P14 P12 −2.2places In range
A. SutilForce India #122108 P8 Grid P6 P8.0P3–P13 P13 −5.0places In range
V. BottasWilliams #162049 P15 P12.0P7–P17 P14 −2.0places In range
F. MassaFerrari #32407 P6 Grid P4 P4.9P1–P10 P15 −10.1places Below range
D. RicciardoToro Rosso #112119 P13 P9.9P5–P14 P16 −6.1places Below range
C. PicCaterham #221969 P19 Grid P18 P15.2P11–P20 P17 −1.8places In range
E. GutiérrezSauber #191988 P18 Grid P22 P14.0P9–P19 P18 −4.0places In range
J. BianchiMarussia #172020 P20 Grid P19 P14.3P10–P19 P19 −4.7places In range
M. ChiltonMarussia #201981 P22 Grid P21 P15.9P11–P21 P20 −4.1places In range
G. van der GardeCaterham #211975 P21 Grid P20 P15.8P11–P20 P21 −5.2places Below range
J. VergneToro Rosso #132108 P16 P11.6P7–P16 DNFPuncture — Not assessedDNF: Puncture
How useful is the model? See the historical check

Average absolute error on 545 classified finishes in 34 earlier races within the last ten years. Each race was held out and predicted using only older races; all three models use the same samples.

Elo + qualifying
2.53places
Qualifying only
2.68places
Elo only
3.06places

The range scales the 80th percentile of earlier held-out absolute errors to this field size, rounding outward. It is an empirical error guide, not a guaranteed 80% chance for a particular driver. We require at least five checked races and 100 checked finishes before showing it.

Inputs are field-normalised Elo rank and qualifying position. The target is position among all race entries, trained only on classified finishers. Estimates are averages, not a unique predicted finishing order. Penalties, the circuit, weather, incidents and strategy aren't model inputs. Historical qualifying coverage is patchy; this is an exploratory backtest on corrected records, not proof of live forecasting accuracy.

The rating ledger

What changed in Elo?

These are actual rating changes. The expectation model above does not change Elo or fantasy scoring.

Largest Elo loss

Massa−62.2 Elo

Largest grid-to-finish gain

Grosjean+8 places

The bigger picture

Championship after this round

Top five in the stored standings. Points include sprint results where applicable.

  1. 1 Vettel 77pts 0
  2. 2 Räikkönen 67pts 0
  3. 3 Hamilton 50pts +1
  4. 4 Alonso 47pts −1
  5. 5 Webber 32pts +1

Movement since round 3. A dash means the earlier standing is unavailable.

Explore the season →
Across the garage

Teammate results

Two-driver constructor entries from this race. A result comparison, not an adjustment for strategy or reliability.

Red Bull

VettelP1+18.8 Elo
WebberP7+16.7 Elo

6 places apart at the finish.

Q3 · Vettel 0.494s faster

McLaren

PérezP6+45.9 Elo
ButtonP10−13.6 Elo

4 places apart at the finish.

Q2 · Button 0.212s faster

Ferrari

AlonsoP8−14.6 Elo
MassaP15−62.2 Elo

7 places apart at the finish.

Q3 · Alonso 0.540s faster

Toro Rosso

RicciardoP16−23.3 Elo
VergneDNF−61.0 Elo

Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.

Q2 · Ricciardo 0.310s faster

Marussia

BianchiP19−26.2 Elo
ChiltonP20−26.5 Elo

1 place apart at the finish.

Q1 · Bianchi 0.298s faster

What this analysis can—and cannot—tell you

This debrief is calculated from stored results and rating snapshots. The experimental expectation model learns from earlier races only, using Elo rank and qualifying together; it never feeds back into Elo. It is not a separately reviewed race report.

Elo uses the result order, including retirements. It does not isolate driver skill from the car, reliability, penalties or strategy. Elo seed comparisons use pre-race ratings, never today's ratings. Equal ratings share the midpoint of their rank range (for example, tied first and second become seed 1.5).

Grid gains use numbered starting slots and classified finishes only. Zero or missing grid values are excluded; a position gained is not necessarily an overtake. Qualifying gaps use the latest segment both teammates have a valid time for, never Q1 against Q3.

Lap-by-lap pace, tyre stints, pit-stop execution and safety-car effects are not available in this report. Missing data is omitted, not inferred.

Read the Elo methodology →
22
Result Entries
2,163
Avg Elo
2,532
Highest Elo (Vettel)
1
Non-finishes

Race

Qualifying

# Driver Grid +/- Points Season Pts Season # Elo Change Elo
P1 🇩🇪 S.Vettel 2 +1 +25 77 P1 +18.8 2,532
P2 🇫🇮 K.Räikkönen 8 +6 +18 67 P2 +18.6 2,470
P3 🇫🇷 R.Grosjean 11 +8 +15 26 P7 +52.7 2,229
P4 🇬🇧 P.di Resta 5 +1 +12 20 P8 +53.3 2,188
P5 🇬🇧 L.Hamilton 9 +4 +10 50 P3 +18.4 2,322
P6 🇲🇽 S.Pérez 12 +6 +8 10 P11 +45.9 2,147
P7 🇦🇺 M.Webber 7 — +6 32 P5 +16.7 2,248
P8 🇪🇸 F.Alonso 3 -5 +4 47 P4 -14.6 2,382
P9 🇩🇪 N.Rosberg 1 -8 +2 14 P9 +31.9 2,100
P10 🇬🇧 J.Button 10 — +1 13 P10 -13.6 2,283
P11 🇻🇪 P.Maldonado 17 +6 0 0 P17 +27.9 2,041
P12 🇩🇪 N.Hülkenberg 14 +2 0 5 P14 -5.8 2,164
P13 🇩🇪 A.Sutil 6 -7 0 6 P12 -1.5 2,106
P14 🇫🇮 V.Bottas 15 +1 0 0 P16 +2.1 2,051
P15 🇧🇷 F.Massa 4 -11 0 30 P6 -62.2 2,345
P16 🇦🇺 D.Ricciardo 13 -3 0 6 P13 -23.3 2,095
P17 🇫🇷 C.Pic 18 +1 0 0 P20 -4.9 1,964
P18 🇲🇽 E.Gutiérrez 22 +4 0 0 P18 -14.5 1,974
P19 🇫🇷 J.Bianchi 19 — 0 0 P19 -26.2 1,994
P20 🇬🇧 M.Chilton 21 +1 0 0 P22 -26.5 1,954
P21 🇳🇱 G.van der Garde 20 -1 0 0 P21 -32.2 1,943
DNF 🇫🇷 J.Vergne 16 0 1 P15 -61.0 2,047
# Driver Q1 Q2 Q3 Gap Elo
1 🇩🇪 N.Rosberg 1:33.364 1:32.867 1:32.330 1:32.330 2,617
2 🇩🇪 S.Vettel 1:33.327 1:32.746 1:32.584 +0.254 2,156
3 🇪🇸 F.Alonso 1:32.878 1:33.316 1:32.667 +0.337 2,002
4 🇬🇧 L.Hamilton 1:33.498 1:33.346 1:32.762 +0.432 2,437
5 🇦🇺 M.Webber 1:33.966 1:33.098 1:33.078 +0.748 2,350
6 🇧🇷 F.Massa 1:33.780 1:33.358 1:33.207 +0.877 2,196
7 🇬🇧 P.di Resta 1:33.762 1:33.335 1:33.235 +0.905 2,055
8 🇩🇪 A.Sutil 1:34.048 1:33.378 1:33.246 +0.916 1,925
9 🇫🇮 K.Räikkönen 1:33.827 1:33.146 1:33.327 +0.997 2,029
10 🇬🇧 J.Button 1:34.071 1:33.702 — +1.372 2,016
11 🇫🇷 R.Grosjean 1:33.498 1:33.762 — +1.432 1,931
12 🇲🇽 S.Pérez 1:34.310 1:33.914 — +1.584 1,955
13 🇦🇺 D.Ricciardo 1:34.120 1:33.974 — +1.644 2,055
14 🇩🇪 N.Hülkenberg 1:34.409 1:33.976 — +1.646 2,099
15 🇫🇮 V.Bottas 1:34.425 1:34.105 — +1.775 1,862
16 🇫🇷 J.Vergne 1:34.314 1:34.284 — +1.954 2,141
17 🇻🇪 P.Maldonado 1:34.425 — — +2.095 2,068
18 🇲🇽 E.Gutiérrez 1:34.730 — — +2.4 2,002
19 🇫🇷 C.Pic 1:35.283 — — +2.953 1,850
20 🇫🇷 J.Bianchi 1:36.178 — — +3.848 1,926
21 🇳🇱 G.van der Garde 1:36.304 — — +3.974 1,866
22 🇬🇧 M.Chilton 1:36.476 — — +4.146 1,870
Data: Jolpica (Ergast) API

Elo Changes