What did we expect after qualifying—and who beat it?
A strong driver recovering from a poor qualifying position isn't automatically a surprise. This model estimates a finish from both inputs, then compares it with what happened.
Expected finish assumes a classified finish. DNFs stay in the full grid but receive no performance verdict. Qualifying is not the starting grid; grid differences are flagged, not silently substituted.
Fit on 556 earlier finishes across 34 races, 2004–2013. No results from this race enter its expectation.
Expected P6.9 Finished P2
Expected P7.4 Finished P4
Expected P6.2 Finished P3
Expected P10.5 Finished P19
Expected P13.1 Finished P18
Expected P6.7 Finished P9
19/22 entrants assessed. Up to three per side, ranked by expected minus actual finish. DNFs, missing estimates and gaps rounding to 0.0 are excluded. “Flop” means below the model's estimate—not poor driving. A ranked gap can still be inside the usual error range.
| Driver | Pre-race Elo | Qualifying | Expected | Result | P1 ← position → P22 | vs expected | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. VettelRed Bull | #12543 | P1 | P2.3P1–P7 | P1 | +1.3places | In range | |
| K. RäikkönenLotus F1 | #42361 | P10 Grid P9 | P6.9P2–P12 | P2 | +4.9places | In range | |
| R. GrosjeanLotus F1 | #112143 | P4 Grid P3 | P6.2P2–P11 | P3 | +3.2places | In range | |
| N. HülkenbergSauber | #92190 | P8 Grid P7 | P7.4P3–P12 | P4 | +3.4places | In range | |
| L. HamiltonMercedes | #32413 | P2 | P3.3P1–P8 | P5 | −1.7places | In range | |
| F. AlonsoFerrari | #22506 | P6 Grid P5 | P4.7P1–P9 | P6 | −1.3places | In range | |
| N. RosbergMercedes | #62313 | P5 Grid P4 | P5.3P1–P10 | P7 | −1.7places | In range | |
| J. ButtonMcLaren | #72293 | P12 Grid P11 | P8.6P4–P13 | P8 | +0.6places | In range | |
| F. MassaFerrari | #82293 | P7 Grid P6 | P6.7P2–P11 | P9 | −2.3places | In range | |
| S. PérezMcLaren | #102174 | P11 Grid P10 | P8.9P4–P14 | P10 | −1.1places | In range | |
| E. GutiérrezSauber | #162025 | P9 Grid P8 | P9.6P5–P14 | P11 | −1.4places | In range | |
| V. BottasWilliams | #152030 | P17 | P12.8P8–P17 | P12 | +0.8places | In range | |
| P. MaldonadoWilliams | #142066 | P18 | P12.9P8–P18 | P13 | −0.1places | In range | |
| C. PicCaterham | #211900 | P19 | P15.2P10–P20 | P14 | +1.2places | In range | |
| G. van der GardeCaterham | #191926 | P20 | P15.1P10–P20 | P15 | +0.1places | In range | |
| J. BianchiMarussia | #201908 | P21 Grid P22 | P15.7P11–P20 | P16 | −0.3places | In range | |
| M. ChiltonMarussia | #221898 | P22 Grid P21 | P16.7P12–P21 | P17 | −0.3places | In range | |
| J. VergneToro Rosso | #182013 | P16 | P13.1P8–P18 | P18 | −4.9places | In range | |
| D. RicciardoToro Rosso | #132093 | P13 Grid P12 | P10.5P6–P15 | P19 | −8.5places | Below range | |
| A. SutilForce India | #122125 | P14 | P10.7P6–P15 | DNFCollision | — | Not assessedDNF: Collision | |
| M. WebberRed Bull | #52352 | P3 Grid P13 | P4.2P1–P9 | DNFCollision | — | Not assessedDNF: Collision | |
| P. di RestaForce India | #172015 | P15 | P12.4P8–P17 | DNFSpun off | — | Not assessedDNF: Spun off |
Average absolute error on 556 classified finishes in 34 earlier races within the last ten years. Each race was held out and predicted using only older races; all three models use the same samples.
The range scales the 80th percentile of earlier held-out absolute errors to this field size, rounding outward. It is an empirical error guide, not a guaranteed 80% chance for a particular driver. We require at least five checked races and 100 checked finishes before showing it.
Inputs are field-normalised Elo rank and qualifying position. The target is position among all race entries, trained only on classified finishers. Estimates are averages, not a unique predicted finishing order. Penalties, the circuit, weather, incidents and strategy aren't model inputs. Historical qualifying coverage is patchy; this is an exploratory backtest on corrected records, not proof of live forecasting accuracy.
These are actual rating changes. The expectation model above does not change Elo or fantasy scoring.
Top five in the stored standings. Points include sprint results where applicable.
Movement since round 13. A dash means the earlier standing is unavailable.
Explore the season →Two-driver constructor entries from this race. A result comparison, not an adjustment for strategy or reliability.
Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.
Q3 · Vettel 0.262s faster
1 place apart at the finish.
Q3 · Grosjean 1.291s faster
7 places apart at the finish.
Q3 · Hülkenberg 0.168s faster
2 places apart at the finish.
Q3 · Hamilton 0.259s faster
3 places apart at the finish.
Q3 · Alonso 0.185s faster
2 places apart at the finish.
Q2 · Pérez 0.003s faster
1 place apart at the finish.
Q1 · Bottas 0.517s faster
1 place apart at the finish.
Q1 · Pic 0.007s faster
1 place apart at the finish.
Q1 · Bianchi 0.153s faster
1 place apart at the finish.
Q2 · Ricciardo 0.364s faster
Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.
Q2 · Sutil 0.287s faster
This debrief is calculated from stored results and rating snapshots. The experimental expectation model learns from earlier races only, using Elo rank and qualifying together; it never feeds back into Elo. It is not a separately reviewed race report.
Elo uses the result order, including retirements. It does not isolate driver skill from the car, reliability, penalties or strategy. Elo seed comparisons use pre-race ratings, never today's ratings. Equal ratings share the midpoint of their rank range (for example, tied first and second become seed 1.5).
Grid gains use numbered starting slots and classified finishes only. Zero or missing grid values are excluded; a position gained is not necessarily an overtake. Qualifying gaps use the latest segment both teammates have a valid time for, never Q1 against Q3.
Lap-by-lap pace, tyre stints, pit-stop execution and safety-car effects are not available in this report. Missing data is omitted, not inferred.
Read the Elo methodology →| # | Driver | Grid | +/- | Points | Season Pts | Season # | Elo Change | Elo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | 🇩🇪 |
|
S.Vettel | 1 | — | +25 | 272 | P1 | +17.8 | 2,561 |
| P2 | 🇫🇮 | Lotus F1 | K.Räikkönen | 9 | +7 | +18 | 167 | P3 | +31.7 | 2,393 |
| P3 | 🇫🇷 | Lotus F1 | R.Grosjean | 3 | — | +15 | 72 | P8 | +58.5 | 2,202 |
| P4 | 🇩🇪 |
|
N.Hülkenberg | 7 | +3 | +12 | 31 | P11 | +44.2 | 2,235 |
| P5 | 🇬🇧 |
|
L.Hamilton | 2 | -3 | +10 | 161 | P4 | +5.1 | 2,418 |
| P6 | 🇪🇸 |
|
F.Alonso | 5 | -1 | +8 | 195 | P2 | -11.8 | 2,494 |
| P7 | 🇩🇪 |
|
N.Rosberg | 4 | -3 | +6 | 122 | P6 | +5.4 | 2,318 |
| P8 | 🇬🇧 |
|
J.Button | 11 | +3 | +4 | 58 | P9 | +1.7 | 2,295 |
| P9 | 🇧🇷 |
|
F.Massa | 6 | -3 | +2 | 89 | P7 | -4.9 | 2,288 |
| P10 | 🇲🇽 |
|
S.Pérez | 10 | — | +1 | 23 | P13 | +7.2 | 2,181 |
| P11 | 🇲🇽 |
|
E.Gutiérrez | 8 | -3 | 0 | 0 | P17 | +24.7 | 2,050 |
| P12 | 🇫🇮 |
|
V.Bottas | 17 | +5 | 0 | 0 | P18 | +17.3 | 2,047 |
| P13 | 🇻🇪 |
|
P.Maldonado | 18 | +5 | 0 | 1 | P16 | +5.0 | 2,071 |
| P14 | 🇫🇷 | Caterham | C.Pic | 19 | +5 | 0 | 0 | P20 | +22.7 | 1,923 |
| P15 | 🇳🇱 | Caterham | G.van der Garde | 20 | +5 | 0 | 0 | P21 | +12.7 | 1,939 |
| P16 | 🇫🇷 | Marussia | J.Bianchi | 22 | +6 | 0 | 0 | P19 | +8.5 | 1,916 |
| P17 | 🇬🇧 | Marussia | M.Chilton | 21 | +4 | 0 | 0 | P22 | +3.2 | 1,901 |
| P18 | 🇫🇷 | Toro Rosso | J.Vergne | 16 | -2 | 0 | 13 | P15 | -19.8 | 1,993 |
| P19 | 🇦🇺 | Toro Rosso | D.Ricciardo | 12 | -7 | 0 | 18 | P14 | -39.1 | 2,054 |
| DNF | 🇩🇪 | Force India | A.Sutil | 14 | 0 | 26 | P12 | -50.9 | 2,074 | |
| DNF | 🇦🇺 |
|
M.Webber | 13 | 0 | 130 | P5 | -92.8 | 2,259 | |
| DNF | 🇬🇧 | Force India | P.di Resta | 15 | 0 | 36 | P10 | -46.6 | 1,969 |