Top 3
Beat the estimateNo comparable estimates available for this race yet.
Kings of this circuit
The race, in perspective
R021953
Race debrief
What did we expect after qualifying—and who beat it?
Share this debrief
37 stored results
37/37 Elo snapshots
37/37 numbered grid slots
0/37 qualifying results
Elo × qualifying → race result
Experimental · v1
Did they beat the expectation?
A strong driver recovering from a poor qualifying position isn't automatically a surprise. This model estimates a finish from both inputs, then compares it with what happened.
Expected finish assumes a classified finish. DNFs stay in the full grid but receive no performance verdict. Qualifying is not the starting grid; grid differences are flagged, not silently substituted.
This race has insufficient earlier history: 0/20 races and 0/200 classified finishes with Elo and qualifying. Estimates are withheld.
0/37 entrants have an estimate. Missing Elo or qualifying stays visible below; a grid position is not used as a qualifying result.
Flop 3
Below the estimateNo comparable estimates available for this race yet.
0/37 entrants assessed. Up to three per side, ranked by expected minus actual finish. DNFs, missing estimates and gaps rounding to 0.0 are excluded. “Flop” means below the model's estimate—not poor driving. A ranked gap can still be inside the usual error range.
| Driver | Pre-race Elo | Qualifying | Expected | Result | P1 ← position → P37 | vs expected | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. VukovichKurtis Kraft | #271933 | — | —No error range | P1 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| A. CrossKurtis Kraft | #62148 | — | —No error range | P2 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| S. HanksKurtis Kraft | #52160 | — | —No error range | P3 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| F. AgabashianKurtis Kraft | #361844 | — | —No error range | P4 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| J. McGrathKurtis Kraft | #42164 | — | —No error range | P5 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| J. DaywaltKurtis Kraft | #192000 | — | —No error range | P6 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| J. RathmannKurtis Kraft | #72146 | — | —No error range | P7 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| E. JohnsonKurtis Kraft | #152012 | — | —No error range | P7 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| E. McCoyStevens | #192000 | — | —No error range | P8 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| T. BettenhausenKuzma | #301914 | — | —No error range | DNFAccident | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| J. DaviesKurtis Kraft | #142013 | — | —No error range | P10 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| D. NalonKurtis Kraft | #261938 | — | —No error range | DNFAccident | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| C. ScarboroughKurtis Kraft | #231987 | — | —No error range | P12 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| M. AyuloKuzma | #132048 | — | —No error range | DNFEngine | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| J. BryanSchroeder | #82136 | — | —No error range | P14 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| B. HollandKurtis Kraft | #22203 | — | —No error range | DNFMagneto | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| R. WardKurtis Kraft | #341870 | — | —No error range | DNFAxle | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| D. DinsmoreKurtis Kraft | #371808 | — | —No error range | DNFAxle | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| W. FaulknerKurtis Kraft | #122084 | — | —No error range | P17 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| J. MantzKurtis Kraft | #192000 | — | —No error range | P17 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| M. TeagueKurtis Kraft | #192000 | — | —No error range | DNFOil leak | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| T. WebbKurtis Kraft | #291924 | — | —No error range | DNFOil leak | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| J. HolmesKurtis Kraft | #281928 | — | —No error range | DNFOil leak | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| B. SweikertKuzma | #311889 | — | —No error range | DNFSuspension | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| M. NazarukTurner | #32187 | — | —No error range | DNFTransmission | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| P. FlahertyKuzma | #112098 | — | —No error range | DNFAccident | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| J. HoytKurtis Kraft | #251954 | — | —No error range | DNFOverheating | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| D. CarterLesovsky | #12225 | — | —No error range | DNFIgnition | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| P. RussoKurtis Kraft | #102111 | — | —No error range | DNFMagneto | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| J. ParsonsKurtis Kraft | #92112 | — | —No error range | DNFEngine | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| D. FreelandWatson | #192000 | — | —No error range | DNFAccident | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| G. HartleyKurtis Kraft | #331873 | — | —No error range | DNFAccident | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| C. StevensonKuzma | #241971 | — | —No error range | DNFFuel leak | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| C. NidayKurtis Kraft | #192000 | — | —No error range | DNFMagneto | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| B. ScottBromme | #351852 | — | —No error range | DNFOil leak | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| J. ThomsonDel Roy | #192000 | — | —No error range | DNFIgnition | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| A. LindenStevens | #321875 | — | —No error range | DNFAccident | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable |
How useful is the model? See the historical check
There is not enough earlier history for a rolling hold-out check yet.
The range scales the 80th percentile of earlier held-out absolute errors to this field size, rounding outward. It is an empirical error guide, not a guaranteed 80% chance for a particular driver. We require at least five checked races and 100 checked finishes before showing it.
Inputs are field-normalised Elo rank and qualifying position. The target is position among all race entries, trained only on classified finishers. Estimates are averages, not a unique predicted finishing order. Penalties, the circuit, weather, incidents and strategy aren't model inputs. Historical qualifying coverage is patchy; this is an exploratory backtest on corrected records, not proof of live forecasting accuracy.
The rating ledger
What changed in Elo?
These are actual rating changes. The expectation model above does not change Elo or fantasy scoring.
Agabashian+241.6 Elo
Carter−197.0 Elo
Davies+22 places
The bigger picture
Championship after this round
Top five in the stored standings. Points include sprint results where applicable.
Movement since round 1. A dash means the earlier standing is unavailable.
Explore the season →
Across the garage
Teammate results
Two-driver constructor entries from this race. A result comparison, not an adjustment for strategy or reliability.
What this analysis can—and cannot—tell you
This debrief is calculated from stored results and rating snapshots. The experimental expectation model learns from earlier races only, using Elo rank and qualifying together; it never feeds back into Elo. It is not a separately reviewed race report.
Elo uses the result order, including retirements. It does not isolate driver skill from the car, reliability, penalties or strategy. Elo seed comparisons use pre-race ratings, never today's ratings. Equal ratings share the midpoint of their rank range (for example, tied first and second become seed 1.5).
Grid gains use numbered starting slots and classified finishes only. Zero or missing grid values are excluded; a position gained is not necessarily an overtake. Qualifying gaps use the latest segment both teammates have a valid time for, never Q1 against Q3.
Lap-by-lap pace, tyre stints, pit-stop execution and safety-car effects are not available in this report. Missing data is omitted, not inferred.
Read the Elo methodology →Race
Qualifying
| # | Driver | Grid | +/- | Points | Season Pts | Season # | Elo Change | Elo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | 🇺🇸 | Kurtis Kraft | B.Vukovich | 1 | — | +9 | 9 | P2 | +231.7 | 2,164 |
| P2 | 🇺🇸 | Kurtis Kraft | A.Cross | 12 | +10 | +6 | 6 | P3 | +112.9 | 2,261 |
| P3 | 🇺🇸 | Kurtis Kraft | S.Hanks | 9 | +6 | +2 | 2 | P8 | +96.7 | 2,257 |
| P4 | 🇺🇸 | Kurtis Kraft | F.Agabashian | 2 | -2 | +1.5 | 1.5 | P12 | +241.6 | 2,085 |
| P5 | 🇺🇸 | Kurtis Kraft | J.McGrath | 3 | -2 | +2 | 2 | P10 | +73.8 | 2,238 |
| P6 | 🇺🇸 | Kurtis Kraft | J.Daywalt | 21 | +15 | 0 | 0 | P14 | +144.0 | 2,144 |
| P7 | 🇺🇸 | Kurtis Kraft | J.Rathmann | 25 | +18 | 0 | 0 | P15 | +49.7 | 2,196 |
| P7 | 🇺🇸 | Kurtis Kraft | E.Johnson | 25 | +18 | 0 | 0 | P16 | +127.0 | 2,139 |
| P8 | 🇺🇸 | Stevens | E.McCoy | 20 | +12 | 0 | 0 | P20 | +112.0 | 2,112 |
| DNF | 🇺🇸 | Kuzma | T.Bettenhausen | 6 | 0 | 0 | P23 | +145.1 | 2,059 | |
| P10 | 🇺🇸 | Kurtis Kraft | J.Davies | 32 | +22 | 0 | 0 | P25 | +84.0 | 2,097 |
| DNF | 🇺🇸 | Kurtis Kraft | D.Nalon | 26 | 0 | 0 | P26 | +111.6 | 2,050 | |
| P12 | 🇺🇸 | Kurtis Kraft | C.Scarborough | 19 | +7 | 0 | 0 | P28 | +76.3 | 2,063 |
| DNF | 🇺🇸 | Kuzma | M.Ayulo | 4 | 0 | 0 | P29 | +33.8 | 2,082 | |
| P14 | 🇺🇸 | Schroeder | J.Bryan | 31 | +17 | 0 | 0 | P30 | -20.0 | 2,116 |
| DNF | 🇺🇸 | Kurtis Kraft | B.Holland | 28 | 0 | 0 | P31 | -60.2 | 2,142 | |
| DNF | 🇺🇸 | Kurtis Kraft | R.Ward | 10 | 0 | 0 | P34 | +80.3 | 1,951 | |
| DNF | 🇺🇸 | Kurtis Kraft | D.Dinsmore | 10 | 0 | 0 | P33 | +117.9 | 1,926 | |
| P17 | 🇺🇸 | Kurtis Kraft | W.Faulkner | 14 | -3 | 0 | 0 | P35 | -48.5 | 2,036 |
| P17 | 🇺🇸 | Kurtis Kraft | J.Mantz | 14 | -3 | 0 | 0 | P36 | +5.3 | 2,005 |
| DNF | 🇺🇸 | Kurtis Kraft | M.Teague | 22 | 0 | 0 | P44 | -16.0 | 1,984 | |
| DNF | 🇺🇸 | Kurtis Kraft | J.Holmes | 18 | 0 | 0 | P46 | -0.7 | 1,927 | |
| DNF | 🇺🇸 | Kurtis Kraft | T.Webb | 18 | 0 | 0 | P47 | +12.2 | 1,936 | |
| DNF | 🇺🇸 | Kuzma | B.Sweikert | 29 | 0 | 0 | P48 | +7.7 | 1,897 | |
| DNF | 🇺🇸 | Turner | M.Nazaruk | 23 | 0 | 0 | P49 | -149.6 | 2,037 | |
| DNF | 🇺🇸 | Kuzma | P.Flaherty | 24 | 0 | 0 | P50 | -119.3 | 1,979 | |
| DNF | 🇺🇸 | Kurtis Kraft | J.Hoyt | 7 | 0 | 0 | P51 | -56.5 | 1,898 | |
| DNF | 🇺🇸 | Lesovsky | D.Carter | 27 | 0 | 2 | P7 | -197.0 | 2,028 | |
| DNF | 🇺🇸 | Kurtis Kraft | P.Russo | 17 | 0 | 1.5 | P11 | -157.6 | 1,953 | |
| DNF | 🇺🇸 | Kurtis Kraft | J.Parsons | 8 | 0 | 0 | P52 | -168.6 | 1,943 | |
| DNF | 🇺🇸 | Watson | D.Freeland | 15 | 0 | 0 | P53 | -122.7 | 1,877 | |
| DNF | 🇺🇸 | Kurtis Kraft | G.Hartley | 13 | 0 | 0 | P22 | -70.2 | 1,803 | |
| DNF | 🇺🇸 | Kuzma | C.Stevenson | 16 | 0 | 0 | P21 | -129.0 | 1,842 | |
| DNF | 🇺🇸 | Kurtis Kraft | C.Niday | 30 | 0 | 0 | P54 | -154.7 | 1,845 | |
| DNF | 🇺🇸 | Bromme | B.Scott | 11 | 0 | 0 | P27 | -92.6 | 1,759 | |
| DNF | 🇺🇸 | Del Roy | J.Thomson | 33 | 0 | 0 | P45 | -176.0 | 1,824 | |
| DNF | 🇺🇸 | Stevens | A.Linden | 5 | 0 | 0 | P32 | -124.4 | 1,750 |