Round 12 · 2012

Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps

Spa, Belgium · September 02, 2012 · Circuit History · Wikipedia

Kings of this circuit
L.Hamilton 5
The race, in perspective

Race debrief

What did we expect after qualifying—and who beat it?

R122012
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24 stored results 24/24 Elo snapshots 24/24 numbered grid slots 0/24 qualifying results
Elo × qualifying → race result

Did they beat the expectation?

A strong driver recovering from a poor qualifying position isn't automatically a surprise. This model estimates a finish from both inputs, then compares it with what happened.

Experimental · v1

Expected finish assumes a classified finish. DNFs stay in the full grid but receive no performance verdict. Qualifying is not the starting grid; grid differences are flagged, not silently substituted.

Fit on 530 earlier finishes across 34 races, 2002–2012. No results from this race enter its expectation.

0/24 entrants have an estimate. Missing Elo or qualifying stays visible below; a grid position is not used as a qualifying result.

Top 3

Beat the estimate

No comparable estimates available for this race yet.

Flop 3

Below the estimate

No comparable estimates available for this race yet.

0/24 entrants assessed. Up to three per side, ranked by expected minus actual finish. DNFs, missing estimates and gaps rounding to 0.0 are excluded. “Flop” means below the model's estimate—not poor driving. A ranked gap can still be inside the usual error range.

DriverPre-race EloQualifyingExpectedResultP1 ← position → P24vs expectedReading
J. ButtonMcLaren #52326 — —No error range P1 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
S. VettelRed Bull #32438 — —No error range P2 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
K. RäikkönenLotus F1 #42424 — —No error range P3 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
N. HülkenbergForce India #92199 — —No error range P4 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
F. MassaFerrari #82223 — —No error range P5 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
M. WebberRed Bull #22458 — —No error range P6 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
M. SchumacherMercedes #152066 — —No error range P7 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
J. VergneToro Rosso #182038 — —No error range P8 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
D. RicciardoToro Rosso #162057 — —No error range P9 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
P. di RestaForce India #102170 — —No error range P10 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
N. RosbergMercedes #62296 — —No error range P11 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
B. SennaWilliams #132117 — —No error range P12 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
K. KobayashiSauber #142113 — —No error range P13 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
V. PetrovCaterham #201947 — —No error range P14 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
T. GlockMarussia #231840 — —No error range P15 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
C. PicMarussia #211890 — —No error range P16 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
H. KovalainenCaterham #191963 — —No error range P17 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
P. de la RosaHRT #221850 — —No error range P18 — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
N. KarthikeyanHRT #241781 — —No error range DNFSpun off — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
P. MaldonadoWilliams #172054 — —No error range DNFCollision — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
S. PérezSauber #112168 — —No error range DNFCollision — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
F. AlonsoFerrari #12546 — —No error range DNFCollision — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
L. HamiltonMcLaren #72290 — —No error range DNFCollision — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
R. GrosjeanLotus F1 #122155 — —No error range DNFCollision — Not assessedQualifying unavailable
How useful is the model? See the historical check

Average absolute error on 530 classified finishes in 34 earlier races within the last ten years. Each race was held out and predicted using only older races; all three models use the same samples.

Elo + qualifying
2.52places
Qualifying only
2.64places
Elo only
3.02places

The range scales the 80th percentile of earlier held-out absolute errors to this field size, rounding outward. It is an empirical error guide, not a guaranteed 80% chance for a particular driver. We require at least five checked races and 100 checked finishes before showing it.

Inputs are field-normalised Elo rank and qualifying position. The target is position among all race entries, trained only on classified finishers. Estimates are averages, not a unique predicted finishing order. Penalties, the circuit, weather, incidents and strategy aren't model inputs. Historical qualifying coverage is patchy; this is an exploratory backtest on corrected records, not proof of live forecasting accuracy.

The rating ledger

What changed in Elo?

These are actual rating changes. The expectation model above does not change Elo or fantasy scoring.

Largest Elo loss

Alonso−109.7 Elo

Largest grid-to-finish gain

Rosberg+12 places

The bigger picture

Championship after this round

Top five in the stored standings. Points include sprint results where applicable.

  1. 1 Alonso 164pts 0
  2. 2 Vettel 140pts +1
  3. 3 Webber 132pts −1
  4. 4 Räikkönen 131pts +1
  5. 5 Hamilton 117pts −1

Movement since round 11. A dash means the earlier standing is unavailable.

Explore the season →
Across the garage

Teammate results

Two-driver constructor entries from this race. A result comparison, not an adjustment for strategy or reliability.

Ferrari

MassaP5+31.8 Elo
AlonsoDNF−109.7 Elo

Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.

What this analysis can—and cannot—tell you

This debrief is calculated from stored results and rating snapshots. The experimental expectation model learns from earlier races only, using Elo rank and qualifying together; it never feeds back into Elo. It is not a separately reviewed race report.

Elo uses the result order, including retirements. It does not isolate driver skill from the car, reliability, penalties or strategy. Elo seed comparisons use pre-race ratings, never today's ratings. Equal ratings share the midpoint of their rank range (for example, tied first and second become seed 1.5).

Grid gains use numbered starting slots and classified finishes only. Zero or missing grid values are excluded; a position gained is not necessarily an overtake. Qualifying gaps use the latest segment both teammates have a valid time for, never Q1 against Q3.

Lap-by-lap pace, tyre stints, pit-stop execution and safety-car effects are not available in this report. Missing data is omitted, not inferred.

Read the Elo methodology →
24
Result Entries
2,142
Avg Elo
2,459
Highest Elo (Vettel)
6
Non-finishes

Race

Qualifying

# Driver Grid +/- Points Season Pts Season # Elo Change Elo
P1 🇬🇧 J.Button 1 — +25 101 P6 +40.7 2,367
P2 🇩🇪 S.Vettel 10 +8 +18 140 P2 +20.8 2,459
P3 🇫🇮 K.Räikkönen 3 — +15 131 P4 +16.3 2,441
P4 🇩🇪 N.Hülkenberg 11 +7 +12 31 P13 +41.6 2,241
P5 🇧🇷 F.Massa 14 +9 +10 35 P11 +31.8 2,255
P6 🇦🇺 M.Webber 12 +6 +8 132 P3 -5.4 2,453
P7 🇩🇪 M.Schumacher 13 +6 +6 35 P10 +44.7 2,111
P8 🇫🇷 J.Vergne 15 +7 +4 8 P17 +43.2 2,081
P9 🇦🇺 D.Ricciardo 16 +7 +2 4 P18 +34.2 2,091
P10 🇬🇧 P.di Resta 9 -1 +1 28 P15 +10.2 2,180
P11 🇩🇪 N.Rosberg 23 +12 0 77 P7 -15.1 2,281
P12 🇧🇷 B.Senna 17 +5 0 24 P16 +6.6 2,124
P13 🇯🇵 K.Kobayashi 2 -11 0 33 P12 +1.3 2,114
P14 🇷🇺 V.Petrov 19 +5 0 0 P19 +20.5 1,968
P15 🇩🇪 T.Glock 20 +5 0 0 P21 +27.9 1,868
P16 🇫🇷 C.Pic 22 +6 0 0 P22 +16.0 1,906
P17 🇫🇮 H.Kovalainen 18 +1 0 0 P20 +0.3 1,963
P18 🇪🇸 P.de la Rosa 21 +3 0 0 P24 +8.8 1,859
DNF 🇮🇳 N.Karthikeyan 24 0 0 P23 +10.1 1,791
DNF 🇻🇪 P.Maldonado 6 0 29 P14 -31.4 2,022
DNF 🇲🇽 S.Pérez 4 0 47 P9 -55.5 2,112
DNF 🇪🇸 F.Alonso 5 0 164 P1 -109.7 2,436
DNF 🇬🇧 L.Hamilton 7 0 117 P5 -86.3 2,204
DNF 🇫🇷 R.Grosjean 8 0 76 P8 -71.5 2,084

Qualifying results are not available for this race.

Elo Changes