Top 3
Beat the estimateNo comparable estimates available for this race yet.
Round 3 · 2012 · 15 Apr
Results & qualifying →
Shanghai International Circuit
Shanghai, China
Race debrief
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Elo × qualifying → race result
Experimental · v1
Did they beat the expectation?
Model & data
A strong driver recovering from a poor qualifying position isn't automatically a surprise. This model estimates a finish from both pre-race Elo and qualifying, then compares it with what happened.
Expected finish assumes a classified finish. DNFs stay in the full grid but receive no performance verdict. Qualifying is not the starting grid; grid differences are flagged, not silently substituted.
Fit on 489 earlier finishes across 32 races, 2002–2011. No results from this race enter its expectation.
24 stored results
24/24 Elo snapshots
24/24 numbered grid slots
0/24 qualifying results
Missing Elo or qualifying stays visible in the full grid. A grid position is not used as a qualifying result.
0/24 entrants have an estimate. Missing Elo or qualifying; see the full grid below.
Flop 3
Below the estimateNo comparable estimates available for this race yet.
0/24 entrants assessed. DNFs excluded. How we rank
Up to three per side, ranked by expected minus actual finish. DNFs, missing estimates and gaps rounding to 0.0 are excluded. “Flop” means below the model's estimate—not poor driving. A ranked gap can still be inside the usual error range.
| Driver | Pre-race Elo | Qualifying | Expected | Result | P1 ← position → P24 | vs expected | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. RosbergMercedes | #72244 | — | —No error range | P1 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| J. ButtonMcLaren | #42453 | — | —No error range | P2 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| L. HamiltonMcLaren | #52371 | — | —No error range | P3 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| M. WebberRed Bull | #22494 | — | —No error range | P4 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| S. VettelRed Bull | #32493 | — | —No error range | P5 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| R. GrosjeanLotus F1 | #231861 | — | —No error range | P6 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| B. SennaWilliams | #152065 | — | —No error range | P7 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| P. MaldonadoWilliams | #211956 | — | —No error range | P8 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| F. AlonsoFerrari | #12530 | — | —No error range | P9 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| K. KobayashiSauber | #142070 | — | —No error range | P10 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| S. PérezSauber | #102202 | — | —No error range | P11 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| P. di RestaForce India | #82227 | — | —No error range | P12 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| F. MassaFerrari | #92210 | — | —No error range | P13 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| K. RäikkönenLotus F1 | #62310 | — | —No error range | P14 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| N. HülkenbergForce India | #122100 | — | —No error range | P15 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| J. VergneToro Rosso | #132073 | — | —No error range | P16 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| D. RicciardoToro Rosso | #191964 | — | —No error range | P17 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| V. PetrovCaterham | #162054 | — | —No error range | P18 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| T. GlockMarussia | #221870 | — | —No error range | P19 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| C. PicMarussia | #181981 | — | —No error range | P20 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| P. de la RosaHRT | #171982 | — | —No error range | P21 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| N. KarthikeyanHRT | #241825 | — | —No error range | P22 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| H. KovalainenCaterham | #201958 | — | —No error range | P23 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| M. SchumacherMercedes | #112120 | — | —No error range | DNFWheel nut | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable |
How useful is the model? See the historical check
Average absolute error on 489 classified finishes in 32 earlier races within the last ten years. Each race was held out and predicted using only older races; all three models use the same samples.
- Elo + qualifying
- 2.51places
- Qualifying only
- 2.61places
- Elo only
- 3.00places
The range scales the 80th percentile of earlier held-out absolute errors to this field size, rounding outward. It is an empirical error guide, not a guaranteed 80% chance for a particular driver. We require at least five checked races and 100 checked finishes before showing it.
Inputs are field-normalised Elo rank and qualifying position. The target is position among all race entries, trained only on classified finishers. Estimates are averages, not a unique predicted finishing order. Penalties, the circuit, weather, incidents and strategy aren't model inputs. Historical qualifying coverage is patchy; this is an exploratory backtest on corrected records, not proof of live forecasting accuracy.
The rating ledger
What changed in Elo?
These are actual rating changes. The expectation model above does not change Elo or fantasy scoring.
Grosjean+79.2 Elo
Schumacher−66.9 Elo
Vergne+8 places
The bigger picture
Championship after this round
Top five in the stored standings. Points include sprint results where applicable.
Movement since round 2. A dash means the earlier standing is unavailable.
Explore the season →
Across the garage
Teammate results
Two-driver constructor entries from this race. A result comparison, not an adjustment for strategy or reliability.
Mercedes
RosbergP1+52.1 Elo
SchumacherDNF−66.9 Elo
Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.
McLaren
ButtonP2+19.6 Elo
HamiltonP3+22.8 Elo
1 place apart at the finish.
Red Bull
WebberP4+3.5 Elo
VettelP5−2.4 Elo
1 place apart at the finish.
Lotus F1
GrosjeanP6+79.2 Elo
RäikkönenP14−35.2 Elo
8 places apart at the finish.
Williams
SennaP7+43.9 Elo
MaldonadoP8+54.6 Elo
1 place apart at the finish.
Ferrari
AlonsoP9−29.8 Elo
MassaP13−14.8 Elo
4 places apart at the finish.
Sauber
KobayashiP10+25.1 Elo
PérezP11−1.7 Elo
1 place apart at the finish.
Force India
di RestaP12−11.5 Elo
HülkenbergP15−9.6 Elo
3 places apart at the finish.
Toro Rosso
VergneP16−11.4 Elo
RicciardoP17−0.6 Elo
1 place apart at the finish.
Caterham
PetrovP18−20.3 Elo
KovalainenP23−35.8 Elo
5 places apart at the finish.
Marussia
GlockP19+0.1 Elo
PicP20−21.1 Elo
1 place apart at the finish.
HRT
de la RosaP21−27.3 Elo
KarthikeyanP22−12.6 Elo
1 place apart at the finish.
What this analysis can—and cannot—tell you
This debrief is calculated from stored results and rating snapshots. The experimental expectation model learns from earlier races only, using Elo rank and qualifying together; it never feeds back into Elo. It is not a separately reviewed race report.
Elo uses the result order, including retirements. It does not isolate driver skill from the car, reliability, penalties or strategy. Elo seed comparisons use pre-race ratings, never today's ratings. Equal ratings share the midpoint of their rank range (for example, tied first and second become seed 1.5).
Grid gains use numbered starting slots and classified finishes only. Zero or missing grid values are excluded; a position gained is not necessarily an overtake. Qualifying gaps use the latest segment both teammates have a valid time for, never Q1 against Q3.
Lap-by-lap pace, tyre stints, pit-stop execution and safety-car effects are not available in this report. Missing data is omitted, not inferred.
Read the Elo methodology →