Round 5 · 1977

Jarama

Madrid, Spain · May 08, 1977 · Circuit History · Wikipedia

The race, in perspective

Race debrief

What did we expect after qualifying—and who beat it?

R051977

31 stored results 31/31 Elo snapshots 25/31 numbered grid slots 0/31 qualifying results

Elo × qualifying → race result

Did they beat the expectation?

A strong driver recovering from a poor qualifying position isn't automatically a surprise. This model estimates a finish from both inputs, then compares it with what happened.

Experimental · v1

Expected finish assumes a classified finish. DNFs stay in the full grid but receive no performance verdict. Qualifying is not the starting grid; grid differences are flagged, not silently substituted.

This race has insufficient earlier history: 0/20 races and 0/200 classified finishes with Elo and qualifying. Estimates are withheld.

0/31 entrants have an estimate. Missing Elo or qualifying stays visible below; a grid position is not used as a qualifying result.

Top 3

Beat the estimate

No comparable estimates available for this race yet.

Flop 3

Below the estimate

No comparable estimates available for this race yet.

0/31 entrants assessed. Up to three per side, ranked by expected minus actual finish. DNFs, missing estimates and gaps rounding to 0.0 are excluded. “Flop” means below the model's estimate—not poor driving. A ranked gap can still be inside the usual error range.

Full grid: pre-race Elo rank, qualifying position, estimated finish, actual result and difference from expectation. Positive differences mean finishing ahead of the estimate.
Driver	Pre-race Elo	Qualifying	Expected	Result	vs expected	Reading
M. AndrettiTeam Lotus	#52250	—	—No error range	P1	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
C. ReutemannFerrari	#132153	—	—No error range	P2	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
J. ScheckterWolf	#22367	—	—No error range	P3	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
J. MassMcLaren	#122154	—	—No error range	P4	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
G. NilssonTeam Lotus	#112175	—	—No error range	P5	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
H. StuckBrabham	#192053	—	—No error range	P6	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
J. LaffiteLigier	#142136	—	—No error range	P7	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
R. PetersonTyrrell	#242007	—	—No error range	P8	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
H. BinderSurtees	#152105	—	—No error range	P9	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
B. LungerMarch	#182065	—	—No error range	P10	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
I. ScheckterMarch	#271972	—	—No error range	P11	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
P. NèveMarch	#252004	—	—No error range	P12	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
E. de VillotaMcLaren	#301945	—	—No error range	P13	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
E. FittipaldiFittipaldi	#62239	—	—No error range	P14	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
J. WatsonBrabham	#102183	—	—No error range	DNFFuel system	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
A. JonesShadow	#82216	—	—No error range	DNFAccident	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
R. KeeganHesketh	#262000	—	—No error range	DNFAccident	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
H. ErtlHesketh	#162103	—	—No error range	DNFRadiator	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
R. ZorziShadow	#222012	—	—No error range	DNFEngine	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
A. MerzarioMarch	#311879	—	—No error range	DNFSuspension	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
P. DepaillerTyrrell	#42291	—	—No error range	DNFEngine	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
J. HuntMcLaren	#12388	—	—No error range	DNFEngine	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
C. RegazzoniEnsign	#72239	—	—No error range	DNFAccident	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
V. BrambillaSurtees	#172081	—	—No error range	DNFAccident	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
N. LaudaFerrari	#32349	—	—No error range	DNFInjured	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
J. JarierPenske	#92215	— Grid unnumbered	—No error range	DNQDid not qualify	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
A. RibeiroMarch	#212021	— Grid unnumbered	—No error range	DNQDid not qualify	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
B. LungerMarch	#232008	— Grid unnumbered	—No error range	DNQDid not qualify	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
B. HentonMarch	#202043	— Grid unnumbered	—No error range	DNQDid not qualify	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
D. PurleyLEC	#291951	— Grid unnumbered	—No error range	DNQDid not qualify	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
C. AnderssonBRM	#281955	— Grid unnumbered	—No error range	DNQDid not qualify	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable

How useful is the model? See the historical check

There is not enough earlier history for a rolling hold-out check yet.

The range scales the 80th percentile of earlier held-out absolute errors to this field size, rounding outward. It is an empirical error guide, not a guaranteed 80% chance for a particular driver. We require at least five checked races and 100 checked finishes before showing it.

Inputs are field-normalised Elo rank and qualifying position. The target is position among all race entries, trained only on classified finishers. Estimates are averages, not a unique predicted finishing order. Penalties, the circuit, weather, incidents and strategy aren't model inputs. Historical qualifying coverage is patchy; this is an exploratory backtest on corrected records, not proof of live forecasting accuracy.

The rating ledger

What changed in Elo?

These are actual rating changes. The expectation model above does not change Elo or fantasy scoring.

Largest Elo gain

Reutemann+76.8 Elo

Largest Elo loss

Lauda−107.2 Elo

Largest grid-to-finish gain

Lunger+18 places

The bigger picture

Championship after this round

Top five in the stored standings. Points include sprint results where applicable.

1 Scheckter 23pts +1
2 Andretti 20pts +2
3 Reutemann 19pts 0
4 Lauda 19pts −3
5 Hunt 9pts 0

Movement since round 4. A dash means the earlier standing is unavailable.

Explore the season →

Across the garage

Teammate results

Two-driver constructor entries from this race. A result comparison, not an adjustment for strategy or reliability.

Team Lotus

AndrettiP1+60.7 Elo

NilssonP5+53.0 Elo

4 places apart at the finish.