Round 7 · 2011

Circuit Gilles Villeneuve

Montreal, Canada · June 12, 2011 · Circuit History · Wikipedia

Kings of this circuit
L.Hamilton 7
The race, in perspective

Race debrief

What did we expect after qualifying—and who beat it?

R072011
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24 stored results 24/24 Elo snapshots 24/24 numbered grid slots 24/24 qualifying results
Elo × qualifying → race result

Did they beat the expectation?

A strong driver recovering from a poor qualifying position isn't automatically a surprise. This model estimates a finish from both inputs, then compares it with what happened.

Experimental · v1

Expected finish assumes a classified finish. DNFs stay in the full grid but receive no performance verdict. Qualifying is not the starting grid; grid differences are flagged, not silently substituted.

Fit on 462 earlier finishes across 31 races, 2001–2011. No results from this race enter its expectation.

Top 3

Beat the estimate
  1. Jaime Alguersuari Toro Rosso · Elo #17 · Q18

    Expected P13.2 Finished P8

    +5.2places
  2. Jenson Button McLaren · Elo #3 · Q7

    Expected P5.7 Finished P1

    +4.7places
  3. Vitaly Petrov Renault · Elo #12 · Q10

    Expected P8.7 Finished P5

    +3.7places

Flop 3

Below the estimate
  1. Nico Rosberg Mercedes · Elo #6 · Q6

    Expected P5.8 Finished P11

    −5.2places
  2. Jarno Trulli Lotus · Elo #21 · Q19

    Expected P14.4 Finished P17

    −2.6places
  3. Felipe Massa Ferrari · Elo #13 · Q3

    Expected P5.7 Finished P6

    −0.3places

17/24 entrants assessed. Up to three per side, ranked by expected minus actual finish. DNFs, missing estimates and gaps rounding to 0.0 are excluded. “Flop” means below the model's estimate—not poor driving. A ranked gap can still be inside the usual error range.

DriverPre-race EloQualifyingExpectedResultP1 ← position → P24vs expectedReading
J. ButtonMcLaren #32441 P7 P5.7P1–P11 P1 +4.7places In range
S. VettelRed Bull #12543 P1 P2.6P1–P8 P2 +0.6places In range
M. WebberRed Bull #42440 P4 P4.5P1–P10 P3 +1.5places In range
M. SchumacherMercedes #102138 P8 P7.4P2–P13 P4 +3.4places In range
V. PetrovRenault #122132 P10 P8.7P4–P14 P5 +3.7places In range
F. MassaFerrari #132131 P3 P5.7P1–P11 P6 −0.3places In range
K. KobayashiSauber #82204 P13 P9.3P4–P15 P7 +2.3places In range
J. AlguersuariToro Rosso #172006 P18 Grid P24 P13.2P8–P18 P8 +5.2places In range
R. BarrichelloWilliams #142096 P16 P11.8P7–P17 P9 +2.8places In range
S. BuemiToro Rosso #112138 P15 P10.8P6–P16 P10 +0.8places In range
N. RosbergMercedes #62253 P6 P5.8P1–P11 P11 −5.2places In range
P. de la RosaSauber #162060 P17 P12.6P7–P18 P12 +0.6places In range
V. LiuzziHRT #221861 P21 Grid P20 P15.5P10–P21 P13 +2.5places In range
N. KarthikeyanHRT #241846 P23 Grid P22 P16.8P12–P22 P14 +2.8places In range
J. d'AmbrosioVirgin #191946 P24 Grid P23 P16.3P11–P22 P15 +1.3places In range
T. GlockVirgin #231852 P22 Grid P21 P16.1P11–P21 P16 +0.1places In range
J. TrulliLotus #211934 P19 Grid P18 P14.4P9–P20 P17 −2.6places In range
P. di RestaForce India #152066 P11 P9.7P5–P15 DNFAccident — Not assessedDNF: Accident
P. MaldonadoWilliams #201943 P12 P11.1P6–P16 DNFRetired — Not assessedDNF: Retired
N. HeidfeldRenault #72241 P9 P7.3P2–P13 DNFAccident — Not assessedDNF: Accident
A. SutilForce India #92156 P14 P10.0P5–P15 DNFAccident — Not assessedDNF: Accident
F. AlonsoFerrari #22452 P2 P3.3P1–P8 DNFCollision — Not assessedDNF: Collision
H. KovalainenLotus #181958 P20 Grid P19 P14.3P9–P20 DNFTransmission — Not assessedDNF: Transmission
L. HamiltonMcLaren #52433 P5 P5.2P1–P10 DNFCollision — Not assessedDNF: Collision
How useful is the model? See the historical check

Average absolute error on 462 classified finishes in 31 earlier races within the last ten years. Each race was held out and predicted using only older races; all three models use the same samples.

Elo + qualifying
2.53places
Qualifying only
2.59places
Elo only
3.10places

The range scales the 80th percentile of earlier held-out absolute errors to this field size, rounding outward. It is an empirical error guide, not a guaranteed 80% chance for a particular driver. We require at least five checked races and 100 checked finishes before showing it.

Inputs are field-normalised Elo rank and qualifying position. The target is position among all race entries, trained only on classified finishers. Estimates are averages, not a unique predicted finishing order. Penalties, the circuit, weather, incidents and strategy aren't model inputs. Historical qualifying coverage is patchy; this is an exploratory backtest on corrected records, not proof of live forecasting accuracy.

The rating ledger

What changed in Elo?

These are actual rating changes. The expectation model above does not change Elo or fantasy scoring.

The bigger picture

Championship after this round

Top five in the stored standings. Points include sprint results where applicable.

  1. 1 Vettel 161pts 0
  2. 2 Button 101pts +2
  3. 3 Webber 94pts 0
  4. 4 Hamilton 85pts −2
  5. 5 Alonso 69pts 0

Movement since round 6. A dash means the earlier standing is unavailable.

Explore the season →
Across the garage

Teammate results

Two-driver constructor entries from this race. A result comparison, not an adjustment for strategy or reliability.

McLaren

ButtonP1+27.2 Elo
HamiltonDNF−117.3 Elo

Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.

Q3 · Hamilton 0.273s faster

Red Bull

VettelP2+10.9 Elo
WebberP3+14.7 Elo

1 place apart at the finish.

Q3 · Vettel 0.415s faster

Renault

PetrovP5+46.9 Elo
HeidfeldDNF−65.8 Elo

Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.

Q3 · Heidfeld 0.023s faster

Ferrari

MassaP6+40.7 Elo
AlonsoDNF−106.7 Elo

Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.

Q3 · Alonso 0.018s faster

HRT

LiuzziP13+38.8 Elo
KarthikeyanP14+34.4 Elo

1 place apart at the finish.

Q1 · Liuzzi 0.150s faster

Lotus

TrulliP17+3.3 Elo
KovalainenDNF−38.2 Elo

Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.

Q1 · Trulli 0.041s faster

Force India

di RestaDNF−24.1 Elo
SutilDNF−58.3 Elo

Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.

Q2 · di Resta 0.535s faster

What this analysis can—and cannot—tell you

This debrief is calculated from stored results and rating snapshots. The experimental expectation model learns from earlier races only, using Elo rank and qualifying together; it never feeds back into Elo. It is not a separately reviewed race report.

Elo uses the result order, including retirements. It does not isolate driver skill from the car, reliability, penalties or strategy. Elo seed comparisons use pre-race ratings, never today's ratings. Equal ratings share the midpoint of their rank range (for example, tied first and second become seed 1.5).

Grid gains use numbered starting slots and classified finishes only. Zero or missing grid values are excluded; a position gained is not necessarily an overtake. Qualifying gaps use the latest segment both teammates have a valid time for, never Q1 against Q3.

Lap-by-lap pace, tyre stints, pit-stop execution and safety-car effects are not available in this report. Missing data is omitted, not inferred.

Read the Elo methodology →
24
Result Entries
2,136
Avg Elo
2,554
Highest Elo (Vettel)
7
Non-finishes

Race

Qualifying

# Driver Grid +/- Points Season Pts Season # Elo Change Elo
P1 🇬🇧 J.Button 7 +6 +25 101 P2 +27.2 2,468
P2 🇩🇪 S.Vettel 1 -1 +18 161 P1 +10.9 2,554
P3 🇦🇺 M.Webber 4 +1 +15 94 P3 +14.7 2,455
P4 🇩🇪 M.Schumacher 8 +4 +12 26 P9 +52.1 2,190
P5 🇷🇺 V.Petrov 10 +5 +10 31 P7 +46.9 2,179
P6 🇧🇷 F.Massa 3 -3 +8 32 P6 +40.7 2,172
P7 🇯🇵 K.Kobayashi 13 +6 +6 25 P11 +22.2 2,227
P8 🇪🇸 J.Alguersuari 24 +16 +4 4 P14 +49.0 2,055
P9 🇧🇷 R.Barrichello 16 +7 +2 4 P15 +27.6 2,124
P10 🇨🇭 S.Buemi 15 +5 +1 8 P13 +14.3 2,152
P11 🇩🇪 N.Rosberg 6 -5 0 26 P10 -10.8 2,242
P12 🇪🇸 P.de la Rosa 17 +5 0 0 P18 +14.7 2,075
P13 🇮🇹 V.Liuzzi 20 +7 0 0 P20 +38.8 1,900
P14 🇮🇳 N.Karthikeyan 22 +8 0 0 P23 +34.4 1,881
P15 🇧🇪 J.d'Ambrosio 23 +8 0 0 P21 +14.2 1,960
P16 🇩🇪 T.Glock 21 +5 0 0 P25 +21.0 1,873
P17 🇮🇹 J.Trulli 18 +1 0 0 P19 +3.3 1,938
DNF 🇬🇧 P.di Resta 11 0 2 P17 -24.1 2,041
DNF 🇻🇪 P.Maldonado 12 0 0 P24 -10.6 1,932
DNF 🇩🇪 N.Heidfeld 9 0 29 P8 -65.8 2,175
DNF 🇩🇪 A.Sutil 14 0 8 P12 -58.3 2,097
DNF 🇪🇸 F.Alonso 2 0 69 P5 -106.7 2,345
DNF 🇫🇮 H.Kovalainen 19 0 0 P22 -38.2 1,919
DNF 🇬🇧 L.Hamilton 5 0 85 P4 -117.3 2,316
# Driver Q1 Q2 Q3 Gap Elo
1 🇩🇪 S.Vettel 1:14.011 1:13.486 1:13.014 1:13.014 2,156
2 🇪🇸 F.Alonso 1:13.822 1:13.672 1:13.199 +0.185 2,002
3 🇧🇷 F.Massa 1:14.026 1:13.431 1:13.217 +0.203 2,196
4 🇦🇺 M.Webber 1:14.375 1:13.654 1:13.429 +0.415 2,350
5 🇬🇧 L.Hamilton 1:14.114 1:13.926 1:13.565 +0.551 2,437
6 🇩🇪 N.Rosberg 1:14.920 1:13.950 1:13.814 +0.8 2,617
7 🇬🇧 J.Button 1:14.374 1:13.955 1:13.838 +0.824 2,016
8 🇩🇪 M.Schumacher 1:14.970 1:14.242 1:13.864 +0.85 2,118
9 🇩🇪 N.Heidfeld 1:15.096 1:14.467 1:14.062 +1.048 2,053
10 🇷🇺 V.Petrov 1:14.699 1:14.354 1:14.085 +1.071 2,014
11 🇬🇧 P.di Resta 1:14.874 1:14.752 — +1.738 2,055
12 🇻🇪 P.Maldonado 1:15.585 1:15.043 — +2.029 2,068
13 🇯🇵 K.Kobayashi 1:15.694 1:15.285 — +2.271 1,887
14 🇩🇪 A.Sutil 1:14.931 1:15.287 — +2.273 1,925
15 🇨🇭 S.Buemi 1:15.901 1:15.334 — +2.32 2,001
16 🇧🇷 R.Barrichello 1:15.331 1:15.361 — +2.347 2,073
17 🇪🇸 P.de la Rosa 1:16.229 1:15.587 — +2.573 1,874
18 🇪🇸 J.Alguersuari 1:16.294 — — +3.28 2,124
19 🇮🇹 J.Trulli 1:16.745 — — +3.731 1,893
20 🇫🇮 H.Kovalainen 1:16.786 — — +3.772 2,015
21 🇮🇹 V.Liuzzi 1:18.424 — — +5.41 1,795
22 🇩🇪 T.Glock 1:18.537 — — +5.523 1,950
23 🇮🇳 N.Karthikeyan 1:18.574 — — +5.56 1,793
24 🇧🇪 J.d'Ambrosio 1:19.414 — — +6.4 1,899
Data: Jolpica (Ergast) API

Elo Changes