Top 3
Beat the estimateNo comparable estimates available for this race yet.
Round 4 · 1996 · 28 Apr
Results & qualifying →
Nürburgring
Nürburg, Germany
Race debrief
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Elo × qualifying → race result
Experimental · v1
Did they beat the expectation?
Model & data
A strong driver recovering from a poor qualifying position isn't automatically a surprise. This model estimates a finish from both pre-race Elo and qualifying, then compares it with what happened.
Expected finish assumes a classified finish. DNFs stay in the full grid but receive no performance verdict. Qualifying is not the starting grid; grid differences are flagged, not silently substituted.
This race has insufficient earlier history: 3/20 races and 32/200 classified finishes with Elo and qualifying. Estimates are withheld.
22 stored results
22/22 Elo snapshots
22/22 numbered grid slots
20/22 qualifying results
Missing Elo or qualifying stays visible in the full grid. A grid position is not used as a qualifying result.
0/22 entrants have an estimate. Not enough earlier history to estimate this race.
Flop 3
Below the estimateNo comparable estimates available for this race yet.
0/22 entrants assessed. DNFs excluded. How we rank
Up to three per side, ranked by expected minus actual finish. DNFs, missing estimates and gaps rounding to 0.0 are excluded. “Flop” means below the model's estimate—not poor driving. A ranked gap can still be inside the usual error range.
| Driver | Pre-race Elo | Qualifying | Expected | Result | P1 ← position → P22 | vs expected | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. VilleneuveWilliams | #82154 | P2 | —No error range | P1 | — | Not assessedMore earlier races needed | |
| M. SchumacherFerrari | #22287 | P3 | —No error range | P2 | — | Not assessedMore earlier races needed | |
| D. CoulthardMcLaren | #92149 | P6 | —No error range | P3 | — | Not assessedMore earlier races needed | |
| D. HillWilliams | #12415 | P1 | —No error range | P4 | — | Not assessedMore earlier races needed | |
| R. BarrichelloJordan | #102141 | P5 | —No error range | P5 | — | Not assessedMore earlier races needed | |
| M. BrundleJordan | #162078 | P11 | —No error range | P6 | — | Not assessedMore earlier races needed | |
| J. HerbertSauber | #72179 | P12 | —No error range | P7 | — | Not assessedMore earlier races needed | |
| M. HäkkinenMcLaren | #142097 | P9 | —No error range | P8 | — | Not assessedMore earlier races needed | |
| G. BergerBenetton | #112137 | P8 | —No error range | P9 | — | Not assessedMore earlier races needed | |
| P. DinizLigier | #152082 | P17 | —No error range | P10 | — | Not assessedMore earlier races needed | |
| R. RossetFootwork | #211960 | P20 | —No error range | P11 | — | Not assessedMore earlier races needed | |
| P. LamyMinardi | #132131 | P19 | —No error range | P12 | — | Not assessedMore earlier races needed | |
| G. FisichellaMinardi | #182008 | P18 | —No error range | P13 | — | Not assessedMore earlier races needed | |
| M. SaloTyrrell | #62227 | P14 | —No error range | DSQDisqualified | — | Not assessedMore earlier races needed | |
| U. KatayamaTyrrell | #172044 | P16 | —No error range | DSQDisqualified | — | Not assessedMore earlier races needed | |
| H. FrentzenSauber | #122132 | P10 | —No error range | DNFBrakes | — | Not assessedMore earlier races needed | |
| J. VerstappenFootwork | #192004 | P13 | —No error range | DNFEngine | — | Not assessedMore earlier races needed | |
| O. PanisLigier | #42256 | P15 | —No error range | DNFCollision | — | Not assessedMore earlier races needed | |
| E. IrvineFerrari | #32284 | P7 | —No error range | DNFElectrical | — | Not assessedMore earlier races needed | |
| J. AlesiBenetton | #52239 | P4 | —No error range | DNFCollision | — | Not assessedMore earlier races needed | |
| A. MonterminiForti | #221918 | — | —No error range | DNQ107% Rule | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| L. BadoerForti | #201974 | — | —No error range | DNQ107% Rule | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable |
How useful is the model? See the historical check
There is not enough earlier history for a rolling hold-out check yet.
The range scales the 80th percentile of earlier held-out absolute errors to this field size, rounding outward. It is an empirical error guide, not a guaranteed 80% chance for a particular driver. We require at least five checked races and 100 checked finishes before showing it.
Inputs are field-normalised Elo rank and qualifying position. The target is position among all race entries, trained only on classified finishers. Estimates are averages, not a unique predicted finishing order. Penalties, the circuit, weather, incidents and strategy aren't model inputs. Historical qualifying coverage is patchy; this is an exploratory backtest on corrected records, not proof of live forecasting accuracy.
The rating ledger
What changed in Elo?
These are actual rating changes. The expectation model above does not change Elo or fantasy scoring.
Villeneuve+77.2 Elo
Irvine−91.7 Elo
Rosset+9 places
The bigger picture
Championship after this round
Top five in the stored standings. Points include sprint results where applicable.
- 1 Hill 33pts 0
- 2 Villeneuve 22pts 0
- 3 Alesi 10pts 0
- 4 Schumacher 10pts +2
- 5 Irvine 6pts −1
Movement since round 3. A dash means the earlier standing is unavailable.
Explore the season →
Across the garage
Teammate results
Two-driver constructor entries from this race. A result comparison, not an adjustment for strategy or reliability.
Williams
VilleneuveP1+77.2 Elo
HillP4+4.3 Elo
3 places apart at the finish.
Q1 · Hill 0.780s faster
Ferrari
SchumacherP2+41.3 Elo
IrvineDNF−91.7 Elo
Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.
Q1 · Schumacher 0.782s faster
McLaren
CoulthardP3+62.7 Elo
HäkkinenP8+35.0 Elo
5 places apart at the finish.
Q1 · Coulthard 0.190s faster
Jordan
BarrichelloP5+48.8 Elo
BrundleP6+54.9 Elo
1 place apart at the finish.
Q1 · Barrichello 0.359s faster
Sauber
HerbertP7+24.6 Elo
FrentzenDNF−35.6 Elo
Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.
Q1 · Frentzen 0.097s faster
Benetton
BergerP9+18.2 Elo
AlesiDNF−90.5 Elo
Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.
Q1 · Alesi 0.343s faster
Ligier
DinizP10+22.6 Elo
PanisDNF−78.2 Elo
Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.
Q1 · Panis 1.224s faster
Footwork
RossetP11+40.1 Elo
VerstappenDNF−15.6 Elo
Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.
Q1 · Verstappen 2.253s faster
Minardi
LamyP12−4.0 Elo
FisichellaP13+14.9 Elo
1 place apart at the finish.
Q1 · Fisichella 0.218s faster
Tyrrell
SaloDSQ−40.7 Elo
KatayamaDSQ−8.3 Elo
Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.
Q1 · Salo 0.354s faster
Forti
MonterminiDNQ−30.8 Elo
BadoerDNQ−49.0 Elo
Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.
What this analysis can—and cannot—tell you
This debrief is calculated from stored results and rating snapshots. The experimental expectation model learns from earlier races only, using Elo rank and qualifying together; it never feeds back into Elo. It is not a separately reviewed race report.
Elo uses the result order, including retirements. It does not isolate driver skill from the car, reliability, penalties or strategy. Elo seed comparisons use pre-race ratings, never today's ratings. Equal ratings share the midpoint of their rank range (for example, tied first and second become seed 1.5).
Grid gains use numbered starting slots and classified finishes only. Zero or missing grid values are excluded; a position gained is not necessarily an overtake. Qualifying gaps use the latest segment both teammates have a valid time for, never Q1 against Q3.
Lap-by-lap pace, tyre stints, pit-stop execution and safety-car effects are not available in this report. Missing data is omitted, not inferred.
Read the Elo methodology →