Round 6 · 1996 · 19 May

Circuit de Monaco

Monte-Carlo, Monaco

Race debrief

Elo × qualifying → race result

Did they beat the expectation?

Experimental · v1

Model & data

A strong driver recovering from a poor qualifying position isn't automatically a surprise. This model estimates a finish from both pre-race Elo and qualifying, then compares it with what happened.

Expected finish assumes a classified finish. DNFs stay in the full grid but receive no performance verdict. Qualifying is not the starting grid; grid differences are flagged, not silently substituted.

This race has insufficient earlier history: 5/20 races and 54/200 classified finishes with Elo and qualifying. Estimates are withheld.

22 stored results 22/22 Elo snapshots 22/22 numbered grid slots 22/22 qualifying results

Missing Elo or qualifying stays visible in the full grid. A grid position is not used as a qualifying result.

0/22 entrants have an estimate. Not enough earlier history to estimate this race.

Top 3

Beat the estimate

No comparable estimates available for this race yet.

Flop 3

Below the estimate

No comparable estimates available for this race yet.

0/22 entrants assessed. DNFs excluded. How we rank

Up to three per side, ranked by expected minus actual finish. DNFs, missing estimates and gaps rounding to 0.0 are excluded. “Flop” means below the model's estimate—not poor driving. A ranked gap can still be inside the usual error range.

Full grid: pre-race Elo rank, qualifying position, estimated finish, actual result and difference from expectation. Positive differences mean finishing ahead of the estimate.
Driver	Pre-race Elo	Qualifying	Expected	Result	vs expected	Reading
O. PanisLigier	#92163	P14	—No error range	P1	—	Not assessedMore earlier races needed
D. CoulthardMcLaren	#82174	P5	—No error range	P2	—	Not assessedMore earlier races needed
J. HerbertSauber	#132121	P13	—No error range	P3	—	Not assessedMore earlier races needed
H. FrentzenSauber	#162053	P9	—No error range	DNSWithdrew	—	Not assessedMore earlier races needed
M. SaloTyrrell	#142099	P11	—No error range	DNFCollision	—	Not assessedMore earlier races needed
M. HäkkinenMcLaren	#102160	P8	—No error range	DNFCollision	—	Not assessedMore earlier races needed
E. IrvineFerrari	#32238	P7	—No error range	DNFCollision	—	Not assessedMore earlier races needed
J. VilleneuveWilliams	#62213	P10	—No error range	DNFCollision	—	Not assessedMore earlier races needed
J. AlesiBenetton	#72188	P3	—No error range	DNFSuspension	—	Not assessedMore earlier races needed
L. BadoerForti	#211979	P21	—No error range	DNFCollision	—	Not assessedMore earlier races needed
D. HillWilliams	#12447	P2	—No error range	DNFEngine	—	Not assessedMore earlier races needed
M. BrundleJordan	#152090	P16	—No error range	DNFSpun off	—	Not assessedMore earlier races needed
G. BergerBenetton	#52217	P4	—No error range	DNFGearbox	—	Not assessedMore earlier races needed
P. DinizLigier	#122146	P17	—No error range	DNFTransmission	—	Not assessedMore earlier races needed
R. RossetFootwork	#182001	P20	—No error range	DNFSpun off	—	Not assessedMore earlier races needed
U. KatayamaTyrrell	#172045	P15	—No error range	DNFSpun off	—	Not assessedMore earlier races needed
M. SchumacherFerrari	#22362	P1	—No error range	DNFSpun off	—	Not assessedMore earlier races needed
R. BarrichelloJordan	#42228	P6	—No error range	DNFSpun off	—	Not assessedMore earlier races needed
P. LamyMinardi	#112148	P19	—No error range	DNFCollision	—	Not assessedMore earlier races needed
G. FisichellaMinardi	#191988	P18	—No error range	DNFCollision	—	Not assessedMore earlier races needed
J. VerstappenFootwork	#201984	P12	—No error range	DNFSpun off	—	Not assessedMore earlier races needed
A. MonterminiForti	#221853	P22	—No error range	DNFInjury	—	Not assessedMore earlier races needed

How useful is the model? See the historical check

There is not enough earlier history for a rolling hold-out check yet.

The range scales the 80th percentile of earlier held-out absolute errors to this field size, rounding outward. It is an empirical error guide, not a guaranteed 80% chance for a particular driver. We require at least five checked races and 100 checked finishes before showing it.

Inputs are field-normalised Elo rank and qualifying position. The target is position among all race entries, trained only on classified finishers. Estimates are averages, not a unique predicted finishing order. Penalties, the circuit, weather, incidents and strategy aren't model inputs. Historical qualifying coverage is patchy; this is an exploratory backtest on corrected records, not proof of live forecasting accuracy.

The rating ledger

What changed in Elo?

These are actual rating changes. The expectation model above does not change Elo or fantasy scoring.

Largest Elo gain

Frentzen+75.9 Elo

Largest Elo loss

Schumacher−89.4 Elo

Largest grid-to-finish gain

Panis+13 places

The bigger picture

Championship after this round

Top five in the stored standings. Points include sprint results where applicable.

1 Hill 43pts 0
2 Villeneuve 22pts 0
3 Schumacher 16pts 0
4 Panis 11pts +7
5 Alesi 11pts −1

Movement since round 5. A dash means the earlier standing is unavailable.

Explore the season →

Across the garage

Teammate results

Two-driver constructor entries from this race. A result comparison, not an adjustment for strategy or reliability.