Round 1 · 1981

Long Beach

California, USA · March 15, 1981 · Circuit History · Wikipedia

The race, in perspective

Race debrief

What did we expect after qualifying—and who beat it?

R011981

29 stored results 29/29 Elo snapshots 24/29 numbered grid slots 0/29 qualifying results

Elo × qualifying → race result

Did they beat the expectation?

A strong driver recovering from a poor qualifying position isn't automatically a surprise. This model estimates a finish from both inputs, then compares it with what happened.

Experimental · v1

Expected finish assumes a classified finish. DNFs stay in the full grid but receive no performance verdict. Qualifying is not the starting grid; grid differences are flagged, not silently substituted.

This race has insufficient earlier history: 0/20 races and 0/200 classified finishes with Elo and qualifying. Estimates are withheld.

0/29 entrants have an estimate. Missing Elo or qualifying stays visible below; a grid position is not used as a qualifying result.

Top 3

Beat the estimate

No comparable estimates available for this race yet.

Flop 3

Below the estimate

No comparable estimates available for this race yet.

0/29 entrants assessed. Up to three per side, ranked by expected minus actual finish. DNFs, missing estimates and gaps rounding to 0.0 are excluded. “Flop” means below the model's estimate—not poor driving. A ranked gap can still be inside the usual error range.

Full grid: pre-race Elo rank, qualifying position, estimated finish, actual result and difference from expectation. Positive differences mean finishing ahead of the estimate.
Driver	Pre-race Elo	Qualifying	Expected	Result	vs expected	Reading
A. JonesWilliams	#12556	—	—No error range	P1	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
C. ReutemannWilliams	#22553	—	—No error range	P2	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
N. PiquetBrabham	#42362	—	—No error range	P3	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
M. AndrettiAlfa Romeo	#112224	—	—No error range	P4	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
E. CheeverTyrrell	#202046	—	—No error range	P5	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
P. TambayTheodore	#182071	—	—No error range	P6	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
C. SerraFittipaldi	#22.52000	—	—No error range	P7	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
R. ArnouxRenault	#62327	—	—No error range	P8	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
M. SurerEnsign	#142172	—	—No error range	DNFFuel system	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
D. PironiFerrari	#52351	—	—No error range	DNFFuel system	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
J. JarierLigier	#92255	—	—No error range	DNFFuel pump	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
H. RebaqueBrabham	#152122	—	—No error range	DNFAccident	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
B. GiacomelliAlfa Romeo	#172082	—	—No error range	DNFCollision	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
J. LaffiteLigier	#32426	—	—No error range	DNFCollision	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
K. RosbergFittipaldi	#122198	—	—No error range	DNFEngine	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
J. LammersATS	#261972	—	—No error range	DNFCollision	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
R. PatreseArrows	#162104	—	—No error range	DNFFuel system	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
B. GabbianiOsella	#291925	—	—No error range	DNFAccident	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
N. MansellTeam Lotus	#271972	—	—No error range	DNFAccident	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
G. VilleneuveFerrari	#82279	—	—No error range	DNFHalfshaft	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
J. WatsonMcLaren	#102226	—	—No error range	DNFBrakes	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
E. de AngelisTeam Lotus	#72308	—	—No error range	DNFAccident	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
A. ProstRenault	#132178	—	—No error range	DNFCollision	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
A. de CesarisMcLaren	#251979	—	—No error range	DNFCollision	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
K. CoganTyrrell	#281939	— Grid unnumbered	—No error range	DNQDid not qualify	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
D. DalyMarch	#192053	— Grid unnumbered	—No error range	DNQDid not qualify	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
M. GuerraOsella	#22.52000	— Grid unnumbered	—No error range	DNQDid not qualify	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
S. StohrArrows	#22.52000	— Grid unnumbered	—No error range	DNQDid not qualify	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable
E. SalazarMarch	#22.52000	— Grid unnumbered	—No error range	DNQDid not qualify	—	Not assessedQualifying unavailable

How useful is the model? See the historical check

There is not enough earlier history for a rolling hold-out check yet.

The range scales the 80th percentile of earlier held-out absolute errors to this field size, rounding outward. It is an empirical error guide, not a guaranteed 80% chance for a particular driver. We require at least five checked races and 100 checked finishes before showing it.

Inputs are field-normalised Elo rank and qualifying position. The target is position among all race entries, trained only on classified finishers. Estimates are averages, not a unique predicted finishing order. Penalties, the circuit, weather, incidents and strategy aren't model inputs. Historical qualifying coverage is patchy; this is an exploratory backtest on corrected records, not proof of live forecasting accuracy.

The rating ledger

What changed in Elo?

These are actual rating changes. The expectation model above does not change Elo or fantasy scoring.

Largest Elo gain

Cheever+99.1 Elo

Largest Elo loss

de Angelis−87.0 Elo

Largest grid-to-finish gain

Arnoux+12 places

The bigger picture

Championship after this round

Top five in the stored standings. Points include sprint results where applicable.

1 Jones 9pts —
2 Reutemann 6pts —
3 Piquet 4pts —
4 Andretti 3pts —
5 Cheever 2pts —

Opening round: no earlier standings in this season to compare.

Explore the season →

Across the garage

Teammate results

Two-driver constructor entries from this race. A result comparison, not an adjustment for strategy or reliability.

Williams

JonesP1+23.8 Elo

ReutemannP2+16.9 Elo

1 place apart at the finish.