Top 3
Beat the estimateNo comparable estimates available for this race yet.
Kings of this circuit
The race, in perspective
R041991
Race debrief
What did we expect after qualifying—and who beat it?
Share this debrief
34 stored results
34/34 Elo snapshots
26/34 numbered grid slots
0/34 qualifying results
Elo × qualifying → race result
Experimental · v1
Did they beat the expectation?
A strong driver recovering from a poor qualifying position isn't automatically a surprise. This model estimates a finish from both inputs, then compares it with what happened.
Expected finish assumes a classified finish. DNFs stay in the full grid but receive no performance verdict. Qualifying is not the starting grid; grid differences are flagged, not silently substituted.
This race has insufficient earlier history: 0/20 races and 0/200 classified finishes with Elo and qualifying. Estimates are withheld.
0/34 entrants have an estimate. Missing Elo or qualifying stays visible below; a grid position is not used as a qualifying result.
Flop 3
Below the estimateNo comparable estimates available for this race yet.
0/34 entrants assessed. Up to three per side, ranked by expected minus actual finish. DNFs, missing estimates and gaps rounding to 0.0 are excluded. “Flop” means below the model's estimate—not poor driving. A ranked gap can still be inside the usual error range.
| Driver | Pre-race Elo | Qualifying | Expected | Result | P1 ← position → P34 | vs expected | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. SennaMcLaren | #12475 | — | —No error range | P1 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| N. MansellWilliams | #92207 | — | —No error range | P2 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| J. AlesiFerrari | #112183 | — | —No error range | P3 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| R. MorenoBenetton | #132147 | — | —No error range | P4 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| A. ProstFerrari | #42352 | — | —No error range | P5 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| E. PirroDallara | #252042 | — | —No error range | P6 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| T. BoutsenLigier | #62330 | — | —No error range | P7 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| B. GachotJordan | #321941 | — | —No error range | P8 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| É. BernardLola | #212082 | — | —No error range | P9 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| É. ComasLigier | #202088 | — | —No error range | P10 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| J. JärvilehtoDallara | #152126 | — | —No error range | P11 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| P. MartiniMinardi | #72283 | — | —No error range | P12 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| M. HäkkinenTeam Lotus | #102205 | — | —No error range | DNFOil leak | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| G. MorbidelliMinardi | #232073 | — | —No error range | DNFGearbox | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| M. GugelminLeyton House | #172122 | — | —No error range | DNFThrottle | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| S. ModenaTyrrell | #122159 | — | —No error range | DNFEngine | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| R. PatreseWilliams | #52344 | — | —No error range | DNFSpun off | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| M. BlundellBrabham | #182117 | — | —No error range | DNFSpun off | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| M. AlboretoFootwork | #262005 | — | —No error range | DNFEngine | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| S. NakajimaTyrrell | #142131 | — | —No error range | DNFSpun off | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| A. SuzukiLola | #192114 | — | —No error range | DNFEngine | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| A. de CesarisJordan | #242047 | — | —No error range | DNFThrottle | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| I. CapelliLeyton House | #162122 | — | —No error range | DNFBrakes | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| G. TarquiniAGS | #311960 | — | —No error range | DNFGearbox | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| G. BergerMcLaren | #22396 | — | —No error range | DNFSpun off | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| N. PiquetBenetton | #32381 | — | —No error range | DNFSuspension | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| J. BaileyTeam Lotus | #301965 | — Grid unnumbered | —No error range | DNQDid not qualify | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| F. BarbazzaAGS | #291965 | — Grid unnumbered | —No error range | DNQDid not qualify | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| A. CaffiFootwork | #271996 | — Grid unnumbered | —No error range | DNQDid not qualify | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| M. BrundleBrabham | #82272 | — Grid unnumbered | —No error range | DNQDid not qualify | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| N. LariniLambo | #222081 | — Grid unnumbered | —No error range | DNQDid not prequalify | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| E. van de PoeleLambo | #281992 | — Grid unnumbered | —No error range | DNQDid not prequalify | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| P. ChavesColoni | #341833 | — Grid unnumbered | —No error range | DNQDid not prequalify | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| O. GrouillardFondmetal | #331866 | — Grid unnumbered | —No error range | DNQDid not prequalify | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable |
How useful is the model? See the historical check
There is not enough earlier history for a rolling hold-out check yet.
The range scales the 80th percentile of earlier held-out absolute errors to this field size, rounding outward. It is an empirical error guide, not a guaranteed 80% chance for a particular driver. We require at least five checked races and 100 checked finishes before showing it.
Inputs are field-normalised Elo rank and qualifying position. The target is position among all race entries, trained only on classified finishers. Estimates are averages, not a unique predicted finishing order. Penalties, the circuit, weather, incidents and strategy aren't model inputs. Historical qualifying coverage is patchy; this is an exploratory backtest on corrected records, not proof of live forecasting accuracy.
The rating ledger
What changed in Elo?
These are actual rating changes. The expectation model above does not change Elo or fantasy scoring.
The bigger picture
Championship after this round
Top five in the stored standings. Points include sprint results where applicable.
Movement since round 3. A dash means the earlier standing is unavailable.
Explore the season →
Across the garage
Teammate results
Two-driver constructor entries from this race. A result comparison, not an adjustment for strategy or reliability.
McLaren
SennaP1+29.0 Elo
BergerDNF−108.8 Elo
Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.
Williams
MansellP2+76.4 Elo
PatreseDNF−48.7 Elo
Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.
Ferrari
AlesiP3+76.3 Elo
ProstP5+24.8 Elo
2 places apart at the finish.
Benetton
MorenoP4+79.3 Elo
PiquetDNF−112.4 Elo
Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.
Dallara
PirroP6+94.0 Elo
JärvilehtoP11+41.0 Elo
5 places apart at the finish.
Ligier
BoutsenP7+16.7 Elo
ComasP10+57.1 Elo
3 places apart at the finish.
Jordan
GachotP8+105.5 Elo
de CesarisDNF−7.4 Elo
Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.
Lola
BernardP9+64.9 Elo
SuzukiDNF−18.6 Elo
Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.
Minardi
MartiniP12−4.3 Elo
MorbidelliDNF+35.9 Elo
Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.
Team Lotus
HäkkinenDNF+7.9 Elo
BaileyDNQ−18.8 Elo
Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.
Leyton House
GugelminDNF+17.0 Elo
CapelliDNF−33.2 Elo
Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.
Tyrrell
ModenaDNF+1.1 Elo
NakajimaDNF−16.9 Elo
Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.
Brabham
BlundellDNF−0.6 Elo
BrundleDNQ−114.7 Elo
Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.
Footwork
AlboretoDNF+21.7 Elo
CaffiDNQ−38.7 Elo
Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.
AGS
TarquiniDNF+1.0 Elo
BarbazzaDNQ−25.2 Elo
Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.
Lambo
LariniDNQ−72.6 Elo
van de PoeleDNQ−56.6 Elo
Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.
What this analysis can—and cannot—tell you
This debrief is calculated from stored results and rating snapshots. The experimental expectation model learns from earlier races only, using Elo rank and qualifying together; it never feeds back into Elo. It is not a separately reviewed race report.
Elo uses the result order, including retirements. It does not isolate driver skill from the car, reliability, penalties or strategy. Elo seed comparisons use pre-race ratings, never today's ratings. Equal ratings share the midpoint of their rank range (for example, tied first and second become seed 1.5).
Grid gains use numbered starting slots and classified finishes only. Zero or missing grid values are excluded; a position gained is not necessarily an overtake. Qualifying gaps use the latest segment both teammates have a valid time for, never Q1 against Q3.
Lap-by-lap pace, tyre stints, pit-stop execution and safety-car effects are not available in this report. Missing data is omitted, not inferred.
Read the Elo methodology →Race
Qualifying
| # | Driver | Grid | +/- | Points | Season Pts | Season # | Elo Change | Elo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | 🇧🇷 |
|
A.Senna | 1 | — | +10 | 40 | P1 | +29.0 | 2,504 |
| P2 | 🇬🇧 |
|
N.Mansell | 5 | +3 | +6 | 6 | P5 | +76.4 | 2,284 |
| P3 | 🇫🇷 |
|
J.Alesi | 9 | +6 | +4 | 5 | P7 | +76.3 | 2,259 |
| P4 | 🇧🇷 | Minardi | R.Moreno | 8 | +4 | +3 | 3 | P9 | +79.3 | 2,226 |
| P5 | 🇫🇷 |
|
A.Prost | 7 | +2 | +2 | 11 | P2 | +24.8 | 2,377 |
| P6 | 🇮🇹 | Dallara | E.Pirro | 12 | +6 | +1 | 1 | P14 | +94.0 | 2,136 |
| P7 | 🇧🇪 | Ligier | T.Boutsen | 16 | +9 | 0 | 0 | P17 | +16.7 | 2,347 |
| P8 | 🇧🇪 | Larrousse | B.Gachot | 23 | +15 | 0 | 0 | P19 | +105.5 | 2,047 |
| P9 | 🇫🇷 | Lola | É.Bernard | 13 | +4 | 0 | 0 | P23 | +64.9 | 2,147 |
| P10 | 🇫🇷 | Ligier | É.Comas | 26 | +16 | 0 | 0 | P25 | +57.1 | 2,145 |
| P11 | 🇫🇮 | Dallara | J.Järvilehto | 21 | +10 | 0 | 4 | P8 | +41.0 | 2,167 |
| P12 | 🇮🇹 | Minardi | P.Martini | 14 | +2 | 0 | 3 | P10 | -4.3 | 2,278 |
| DNF | 🇫🇮 | Team Lotus | M.Häkkinen | 25 | 0 | 2 | P12 | +7.9 | 2,213 | |
| DNF | 🇮🇹 |
|
G.Morbidelli | 17 | 0 | 0 | P20 | +35.9 | 2,109 | |
| DNF | 🇧🇷 | Leyton House | M.Gugelmin | 15 | 0 | 0 | P27 | +17.0 | 2,139 | |
| DNF | 🇮🇹 | Tyrrell | S.Modena | 2 | 0 | 3 | P11 | +1.1 | 2,160 | |
| DNF | 🇮🇹 |
|
R.Patrese | 3 | 0 | 6 | P4 | -48.7 | 2,295 | |
| DNF | 🇬🇧 | Brabham | M.Blundell | 19 | 0 | 0 | P21 | -0.6 | 2,116 | |
| DNF | 🇮🇹 | Footwork | M.Alboreto | 22 | 0 | 0 | P29 | +21.7 | 2,027 | |
| DNF | 🇯🇵 | Tyrrell | S.Nakajima | 11 | 0 | 2 | P13 | -16.9 | 2,115 | |
| DNF | 🇯🇵 | Lola | A.Suzuki | 20 | 0 | 1 | P15 | -18.6 | 2,095 | |
| DNF | 🇮🇹 | Jordan | A.de Cesaris | 10 | 0 | 0 | P28 | -7.4 | 2,039 | |
| DNF | 🇮🇹 | Leyton House | I.Capelli | 18 | 0 | 0 | P30 | -33.2 | 2,089 | |
| DNF | 🇮🇹 | Fondmetal | G.Tarquini | 24 | 0 | 0 | P22 | +1.0 | 1,961 | |
| DNF | 🇦🇹 |
|
G.Berger | 6 | 0 | 10 | P3 | -108.8 | 2,287 | |
| DNF | 🇧🇷 | Benetton | N.Piquet | 4 | 0 | 6 | P6 | -112.4 | 2,268 | |
| DNQ | 🇬🇧 | Team Lotus | J.Bailey | 0 | 0 | 1 | P16 | -18.8 | 1,946 | |
| DNQ | 🇮🇹 | AGS | F.Barbazza | 0 | 0 | 0 | P32 | -25.2 | 1,940 | |
| DNQ | 🇮🇹 | Footwork | A.Caffi | 0 | 0 | 0 | P31 | -38.7 | 1,957 | |
| DNQ | 🇬🇧 | Brabham | M.Brundle | 0 | 0 | 0 | P26 | -114.7 | 2,157 | |
| DNQ | 🇮🇹 | Lambo | N.Larini | 0 | 0 | 0 | P18 | -72.6 | 2,008 | |
| DNQ | 🇧🇪 | Lambo | E.van de Poele | 0 | 0 | 0 | P24 | -56.6 | 1,936 | |
| DNQ | 🇵🇹 | Coloni | P.Chaves | 0 | 0 | 0 | P35 | -30.1 | 1,803 | |
| DNQ | 🇫🇷 | AGS | O.Grouillard | 0 | 0 | 0 | P34 | -42.1 | 1,824 |