Top 3
Beat the estimateNo comparable estimates available for this race yet.
Kings of this circuit
The race, in perspective
R031990
Race debrief
What did we expect after qualifying—and who beat it?
Share this debrief
35 stored results
35/35 Elo snapshots
26/35 numbered grid slots
0/35 qualifying results
Elo × qualifying → race result
Experimental · v1
Did they beat the expectation?
A strong driver recovering from a poor qualifying position isn't automatically a surprise. This model estimates a finish from both inputs, then compares it with what happened.
Expected finish assumes a classified finish. DNFs stay in the full grid but receive no performance verdict. Qualifying is not the starting grid; grid differences are flagged, not silently substituted.
This race has insufficient earlier history: 0/20 races and 0/200 classified finishes with Elo and qualifying. Estimates are withheld.
0/35 entrants have an estimate. Missing Elo or qualifying stays visible below; a grid position is not used as a qualifying result.
Flop 3
Below the estimateNo comparable estimates available for this race yet.
0/35 entrants assessed. Up to three per side, ranked by expected minus actual finish. DNFs, missing estimates and gaps rounding to 0.0 are excluded. “Flop” means below the model's estimate—not poor driving. A ranked gap can still be inside the usual error range.
| Driver | Pre-race Elo | Qualifying | Expected | Result | P1 ← position → P35 | vs expected | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. PatreseWilliams | #42369 | — | —No error range | P1 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| G. BergerMcLaren | #112282 | — | —No error range | P2 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| A. NanniniBenetton | #62339 | — | —No error range | P3 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| A. ProstFerrari | #32381 | — | —No error range | P4 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| N. PiquetBenetton | #52357 | — | —No error range | P5 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| J. AlesiTyrrell | #82318 | — | —No error range | P6 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| D. WarwickTeam Lotus | #172145 | — | —No error range | P7 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| M. DonnellyTeam Lotus | #222054 | — | —No error range | P8 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| P. AlliotLigier | #182130 | — | —No error range | P9 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| N. LariniLigier | #262001 | — | —No error range | P10 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| P. BarillaMinardi | #232048 | — | —No error range | P11 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| J. JärvilehtoOnyx | #281927 | — | —No error range | P12 | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| É. BernardLarrousse | #192108 | — | —No error range | DNFClutch | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| O. GrouillardOsella | #212070 | — | —No error range | DNFWheel | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| N. MansellFerrari | #92304 | — | —No error range | DNFEngine | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| G. FoitekOnyx | #321807 | — | —No error range | DNFEngine | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| S. ModenaBrabham | #132223 | — | —No error range | DNFBrakes | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| A. de CesarisDallara | #202104 | — | —No error range | DNFWheel | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| M. GugelminLeyton House | #162156 | — | —No error range | DNFElectrical | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| T. BoutsenWilliams | #12438 | — | —No error range | DNFEngine | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| A. SuzukiLarrousse | #331766 | — | —No error range | DNFClutch | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| A. SennaMcLaren | #22421 | — | —No error range | DNFWheel | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| E. PirroDallara | #122226 | — | —No error range | DNFSpun off | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| I. CapelliLeyton House | #252018 | — | —No error range | DNFCollision | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| S. NakajimaTyrrell | #102301 | — | —No error range | DNFCollision | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| R. MorenoEuro Brun | #311844 | — | —No error range | DNFThrottle | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| P. MartiniMinardi | #72324 | — Grid unnumbered | —No error range | DNFAccident | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| A. CaffiArrows | #142204 | — Grid unnumbered | —No error range | DNQDid not qualify | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| M. AlboretoArrows | #242025 | — Grid unnumbered | —No error range | DNQDid not qualify | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| D. BrabhamBrabham | #272000 | — Grid unnumbered | —No error range | DNQDid not qualify | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| B. GachotColoni | #301859 | — Grid unnumbered | —No error range | DNQDid not prequalify | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| C. LangesEuro Brun | #291870 | — Grid unnumbered | —No error range | DNQDid not prequalify | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| B. GiacomelliLife | #152159 | — Grid unnumbered | —No error range | DNQDid not prequalify | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| G. TarquiniAGS | #351721 | — Grid unnumbered | —No error range | DNQDid not prequalify | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable | |
| Y. DalmasAGS | #341744 | — Grid unnumbered | —No error range | DNQDid not prequalify | — | Not assessedQualifying unavailable |
How useful is the model? See the historical check
There is not enough earlier history for a rolling hold-out check yet.
The range scales the 80th percentile of earlier held-out absolute errors to this field size, rounding outward. It is an empirical error guide, not a guaranteed 80% chance for a particular driver. We require at least five checked races and 100 checked finishes before showing it.
Inputs are field-normalised Elo rank and qualifying position. The target is position among all race entries, trained only on classified finishers. Estimates are averages, not a unique predicted finishing order. Penalties, the circuit, weather, incidents and strategy aren't model inputs. Historical qualifying coverage is patchy; this is an exploratory backtest on corrected records, not proof of live forecasting accuracy.
The rating ledger
What changed in Elo?
These are actual rating changes. The expectation model above does not change Elo or fantasy scoring.
Järvilehto+80.5 Elo
Martini−102.0 Elo
Barilla+15 places
The bigger picture
Championship after this round
Top five in the stored standings. Points include sprint results where applicable.
Movement since round 2. A dash means the earlier standing is unavailable.
Explore the season →
Across the garage
Teammate results
Two-driver constructor entries from this race. A result comparison, not an adjustment for strategy or reliability.
Williams
PatreseP1+49.5 Elo
BoutsenDNF−80.0 Elo
Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.
McLaren
BergerP2+61.4 Elo
SennaDNF−89.6 Elo
Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.
Benetton
NanniniP3+43.1 Elo
PiquetP5+27.1 Elo
2 places apart at the finish.
Ferrari
ProstP4+28.8 Elo
MansellDNF−23.7 Elo
Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.
Tyrrell
AlesiP6+29.0 Elo
NakajimaDNF−84.7 Elo
Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.
Team Lotus
WarwickP7+62.0 Elo
DonnellyP8+77.4 Elo
1 place apart at the finish.
Ligier
AlliotP9+53.4 Elo
LariniP10+77.1 Elo
1 place apart at the finish.
Minardi
BarillaP11+60.4 Elo
MartiniDNF−102.0 Elo
Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.
Onyx
JärvilehtoP12+80.5 Elo
FoitekDNF+77.5 Elo
Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.
Larrousse
BernardDNF+33.8 Elo
SuzukiDNF+52.9 Elo
Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.
Brabham
ModenaDNF−18.0 Elo
BrabhamDNQ−46.2 Elo
Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.
Dallara
de CesarisDNF+4.1 Elo
PirroDNF−55.8 Elo
Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.
Leyton House
GugelminDNF−14.6 Elo
CapelliDNF−13.0 Elo
Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.
Euro Brun
MorenoDNF+9.6 Elo
LangesDNQ−32.0 Elo
Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.
Arrows
CaffiDNQ−81.4 Elo
AlboretoDNQ−45.7 Elo
Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.
AGS
TarquiniDNQ−21.3 Elo
DalmasDNQ−30.5 Elo
Non-finish recorded; no finishing gap comparison.
What this analysis can—and cannot—tell you
This debrief is calculated from stored results and rating snapshots. The experimental expectation model learns from earlier races only, using Elo rank and qualifying together; it never feeds back into Elo. It is not a separately reviewed race report.
Elo uses the result order, including retirements. It does not isolate driver skill from the car, reliability, penalties or strategy. Elo seed comparisons use pre-race ratings, never today's ratings. Equal ratings share the midpoint of their rank range (for example, tied first and second become seed 1.5).
Grid gains use numbered starting slots and classified finishes only. Zero or missing grid values are excluded; a position gained is not necessarily an overtake. Qualifying gaps use the latest segment both teammates have a valid time for, never Q1 against Q3.
Lap-by-lap pace, tyre stints, pit-stop execution and safety-car effects are not available in this report. Missing data is omitted, not inferred.
Read the Elo methodology →Race
Qualifying
| # | Driver | Grid | +/- | Points | Season Pts | Season # | Elo Change | Elo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | 🇮🇹 |
|
R.Patrese | 3 | +2 | +9 | 9 | P4 | +49.5 | 2,418 |
| P2 | 🇦🇹 |
|
G.Berger | 2 | — | +6 | 12 | P3 | +61.4 | 2,343 |
| P3 | 🇮🇹 | Benetton | A.Nannini | 9 | +6 | +4 | 4 | P8 | +43.1 | 2,382 |
| P4 | 🇫🇷 |
|
A.Prost | 6 | +2 | +3 | 12 | P2 | +28.8 | 2,410 |
| P5 | 🇧🇷 | Benetton | N.Piquet | 8 | +3 | +2 | 6 | P7 | +27.1 | 2,384 |
| P6 | 🇫🇷 | Tyrrell | J.Alesi | 7 | +1 | +1 | 7 | P5 | +29.0 | 2,347 |
| P7 | 🇬🇧 | Team Lotus | D.Warwick | 10 | +3 | 0 | 0 | P13 | +62.0 | 2,207 |
| P8 | 🇬🇧 | Team Lotus | M.Donnelly | 11 | +3 | 0 | 0 | P15 | +77.4 | 2,131 |
| P9 | 🇫🇷 | Ligier | P.Alliot | 16 | +7 | 0 | 0 | P16 | +53.4 | 2,183 |
| P10 | 🇮🇹 | Ligier | N.Larini | 20 | +10 | 0 | 0 | P17 | +77.1 | 2,078 |
| P11 | 🇮🇹 | Minardi | P.Barilla | 26 | +15 | 0 | 0 | P19 | +60.4 | 2,108 |
| P12 | 🇫🇮 | Onyx | J.Järvilehto | 25 | +13 | 0 | 0 | P20 | +80.5 | 2,007 |
| DNF | 🇫🇷 | Larrousse | É.Bernard | 13 | 0 | 0 | P14 | +33.8 | 2,142 | |
| DNF | 🇫🇷 | Osella | O.Grouillard | 22 | 0 | 0 | P25 | +36.6 | 2,107 | |
| DNF | 🇬🇧 |
|
N.Mansell | 5 | 0 | 3 | P9 | -23.7 | 2,280 | |
| DNF | 🇨🇭 | Onyx | G.Foitek | 23 | 0 | 0 | P27 | +77.5 | 1,884 | |
| DNF | 🇮🇹 | Brabham | S.Modena | 14 | 0 | 2 | P10 | -18.0 | 2,205 | |
| DNF | 🇮🇹 | Dallara | A.de Cesaris | 17 | 0 | 0 | P29 | +4.1 | 2,108 | |
| DNF | 🇧🇷 | Leyton House | M.Gugelmin | 12 | 0 | 0 | P23 | -14.6 | 2,142 | |
| DNF | 🇧🇪 |
|
T.Boutsen | 4 | 0 | 6 | P6 | -80.0 | 2,358 | |
| DNF | 🇯🇵 | Larrousse | A.Suzuki | 15 | 0 | 0 | P28 | +52.9 | 1,819 | |
| DNF | 🇧🇷 |
|
A.Senna | 1 | 0 | 13 | P1 | -89.6 | 2,332 | |
| DNF | 🇮🇹 | Dallara | E.Pirro | 21 | 0 | 0 | P32 | -55.8 | 2,171 | |
| DNF | 🇮🇹 | Leyton House | I.Capelli | 18 | 0 | 0 | P31 | -13.0 | 2,005 | |
| DNF | 🇯🇵 | Tyrrell | S.Nakajima | 19 | 0 | 1 | P11 | -84.7 | 2,216 | |
| DNF | 🇧🇷 | Benetton | R.Moreno | 24 | 0 | 0 | P22 | +9.6 | 1,854 | |
| DNF | 🇮🇹 | Minardi | P.Martini | 0 | 0 | 0 | P12 | -102.0 | 2,222 | |
| DNQ | 🇮🇹 | Arrows | A.Caffi | 0 | 0 | 0 | P26 | -81.4 | 2,122 | |
| DNQ | 🇮🇹 | Arrows | M.Alboreto | 0 | 0 | 0 | P18 | -45.7 | 1,980 | |
| DNQ | 🇦🇺 | Brabham | D.Brabham | 0 | 0 | 0 | P34 | -46.2 | 1,954 | |
| DNQ | 🇧🇪 | Coloni | B.Gachot | 0 | 0 | 0 | P36 | -23.8 | 1,835 | |
| DNQ | 🇮🇹 | Euro Brun | C.Langes | 0 | 0 | 0 | P37 | -32.0 | 1,838 | |
| DNQ | 🇮🇹 | Life | B.Giacomelli | 0 | 0 | 0 | P38 | -101.8 | 2,057 | |
| DNQ | 🇮🇹 | AGS | G.Tarquini | 0 | 0 | 0 | P35 | -21.3 | 1,700 | |
| DNQ | 🇫🇷 | AGS | Y.Dalmas | 0 | 0 | 0 | P30 | -30.5 | 1,714 |